SASAC: Sino US Trade Is Changing. Can China's Textile Industry Leave The United States?

Following the 30 - 31 July, the two sides have just concluded the twelfth round of consultations in Shanghai.

On the return of the US representative, the US president, Trump, changed his face and announced that the United States would impose a 10% tariff on China's total value of $300 billion from September 1st (partly postponed to impose tariffs in December), but at the same time, he also expressed a positive attitude towards the results of the trade negotiations with China.

On the 13 day, the US trade representative's office said that the Trump administration would postpone the 10% tariff imposed on certain Chinese products including notebook computers and mobile phones starting next month. The US trade representative's office said in a statement that tariffs on other products will be postponed to December 15th, including "computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain footwear and clothing products". This loosens the tension of the textile industry.

Negotiations continue, can the textile industry leave the United States?

The trade between China and the United States has changed rapidly, and the trend of negotiations has been affecting the people of cotton spinning enterprises. If we leave the US, will China's cotton textile industry survive?

Recently, the import and export data of textile raw materials and textile products, cotton, knitted or crocheted garments and accessories in the countries along the "belt and road" have been collected, collated and analyzed. The samples are collected from 15 monthly statistics released by the 64 countries along the "one belt and one road" and the General Administration of Customs (i.e. the list of the amount of the category of exporters in some countries (regions) and the list of Importers' category sizes from some countries (regions)), namely, Oman, Pakistan, Philippines, Kazakhstan, Romania, Malaysia, Burma, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, Singapore, Iran, Iran, Iran and Vietnam. By comparing the data of 15 countries with that of the United States, the following conclusions can be drawn:

1. WTO opens the window to the world for Chinese textiles.

In November 10, 2001, at the Fourth Ministerial Conference of the WTO held in Doha, China considered and approved China's accession to the WTO. At that time, the total volume of China's textile exports began to increase in a straight line (see chart 1).

　　 Two, "one belt and one road" opens a new era for China's cotton and textile products, but the key part of the US hegemony is still hard to shake.

1, Vietnam is "thriving" and "one belt and one road" brings together the country.

According to the large category, Vietnam's data are very eye-catching whether imported or exported in the eleventh kinds of textile raw materials and textile products. The chart is higher than other countries.

　　      The import volume of textile raw materials and textile products ranked the top three in Vietnam, India and Pakistan. Among them, the proportion of China's total imports from Vietnam to the total amount of the 15 countries increased from 21.8% in 2014 to 41.6% in 2019, and the amount of imports from Vietnam since Vietnam has been larger than that of the United States since then. The proportion of China's exports to Vietnam accounts for about 30% of the total export volume of the 15 countries, of which only one Vietnam occupies 3 of the total, which should not be underestimated. China's total exports to the 15 countries totaled more than 1 times the amount of exports to the United States.

　　 2, knitted or crocheted garments and accessories import and export

The imports of knitted or crocheted garments and accessories are still significantly higher than those of other countries. The top 3 countries in Vietnam, Turkey and Indonesia account for more than 70% of the total amount of the 15 countries. The total amount of the 15 countries mentioned above is 20-120 times that of the United States of America in the 15 countries.

　　 Nevertheless, in the export of knitted or crocheted garments and accessories, the total amount of the 15 countries mentioned above is less than that of the United States, and the amount of exports to the United States is about 2 times that of the 15 countries mentioned above. From the perspective of textile and clothing, the dominant position of the US market is still obvious.

　　 To sum up, although the "belt and road" countries have brought many opportunities to China, and the data also confirm that China has driven Vietnam's import and export in Vietnam in recent years, and the total amount of imports and exports of the "one belt and one road" country is the multiple of the US. That is to say, the import volume of the eleventh types of textile raw materials and textile products is 4-6 times that of the United States, and the export amount is more than 1 times that of the United States. However, from this category, the hegemony of the United States is temporarily shaken in terms of the export of knitted or crocheted garments and accessories.

How to deal with the textile industry?

Gradually reduce dependence on the US market.

Adjust the product structure and face the high-end market.

Speed up capacity upgrading, enhance design and brand influence.

Industrial transfer.

Expand domestic demand.

Although the two sides declared that although Trump once again turned a blind eye, the talks between the two sides would not be abolished, and they are still working hard for the better. Over the past year, China has been suffering from the friction between China and the United States. But as one of the important pillar industries of China's economy, the textile industry has shown its tough character. Transformation and upgrading are the important tasks of the textile industry. The new development of the transformation and upgrading of China's textile industry is manifested in the following three aspects: Manufacturing Intelligence, diversification of channels and globalization of responsibilities.

China's textile industry needs to focus on technological innovation and focus on basic research such as emerging fiber and high-end equipment. At the same time, cross border cooperation will transform innovative achievements into medical and health, safety protection, environmental protection, transportation and environmental protection, space infrastructure and other fields. In addition, we should integrate resources, form industrial synergy advantage, and build world-class advanced industrial clusters.