Fashion Stocks Report Surprises

When the market is weak,

Many of the "slow cow" Pathfinder (300005, stock bar), nine Mu Wang (601566, stock bar), card slave Road (002656, stock bar) and other trends are particularly eye-catching, what is "nourishing" these stocks?

Reporters found that the above shares due to this year's order growth increased rapidly, and after the corresponding strategic adjustment, some research institutions expect these stocks will report a high growth trend.

Among them, the Pathfinder expects net profit growth of 30%~45% in the first half of the year, and the net profit of card slave road is expected to increase by 50%~60% compared to the same period last year.

High volume of orders, growth stocks grab eyeballs

At present, most brands have finished the order meeting in autumn and winter in 2012. Overall, the price increases basically slowed down. Although the economic environment, weather anomalies and so on, most companies have achieved a good growth rate of order.

According to the statistics of (600999, stock bar),

In spring and summer, the order amount increased by 25%~30% in 2012, and the order amount increased by about 20% in autumn and winter in 2012. The sum of orders in autumn and winter in 2012 increased by 30%; the amount of the order in spring and summer in 2012 increased by 66%, and the increase in the autumn and winter orders was also higher than 60%.

Among them, 9 Mu Wang's ability to raise prices was strong, and orders increased 15% in 2012 spring and summer.

Analyst Liu Yi pointed out that "in line with the performance of the order meeting in autumn and winter 2012, although the growth rate of orders is not as good as that of the previous two years, it has achieved steady and rapid growth, laying a good foundation for the growth of annual performance. It is expected that most of the quality companies in the industry can maintain relatively fast growth throughout the year."

Liu Yi further indicated that, from the perspective of the whole year, the growth of domestic clothing consumption in 2012 will be slightly lower than that of last year, but overall it can still maintain relatively rapid growth. "We expect the industry's retail sales to increase by about 10%~15%."

We expect more than 50% of the median growth rate in the report include the Pathfinder, the card slave road and the rouge stock (002612, the stock bar); in 40%~50%, there are good birds, seven wolves, search for special (002503, stock); in 20%~40% there are nine herdmen, fuanna (002327, stock bar), AOKANG International (603001, stock bar), and the listed companies of cotton spinning listed companies are expected to have a larger decline in performance, such as Lu Tai A, Huafu color spinning (002042, stock bar), Bailong East (601339, stock bar) and so on, slipping more than 30%; Semir clothing (002563, stock bar) as a franchisee goes to the stock market, the performance of the central newspaper will still grow negatively. The stocks that are higher than the growth rate of the industry are worth noting, "Marie Lee, an analyst at Galaxy Securities, said.

Extension expansion ironing risk of growth slowdown

In 2012, the apparel industry was under the pressure of slower growth.

Wang Bing, an analyst at Sun Shun securities, said that in the context of consumption upgrading, the clothing sector has a long-term opportunity to benefit from the consumer goods industry.

"Although the short-term economic fluctuation is inevitable, the consumer goods industry can still play a better defensive role under the main keynote of the obvious economic benefit trend."

Liu Yi believes that "the development of the company can be divided into three stages: rapid expansion stage, stable expansion stage and endogenous growth stage.

This year, companies that are expected to expand rapidly are most able to iron out the risk of slowing industry growth.

High growth Si Jie is a pathfinder, search special, card NDI road and long Zi stock.

At the same time, as a whole, the competition pattern and short-term boom are better than men's and men's shoes. With the rebound of the industry boom, there are obvious benefits from nine herd kings, seven wolves, good news birds and AOKANG international.

In addition, although the international brands continue to impact on the domestic market, the development of the mid-range business and leisure industry in China is relatively stable, leading brand operation is upgraded, and development is steady; the high-end business and leisure industry is facing a certain pattern of shuffling opportunities, and has a certain leading strength and foundation brand, which can develop rapidly in the small scale background.

Cheng Yuan, an analyst with Huatai, points out that the concept of business and leisure is limited by the competition pressure of international brands. The market of mid-range positioning is dominated by Fujian brand, and the leading edge is becoming increasingly prominent, and the pattern has been basically stable.

"It is worth noting that the difference between the brand clothing stocks is large, and the representativeness of the whole industry is also very poor. Therefore, the trend judgment and sub industry selection of any industry should be settled in the selection of individual stocks."

Sun letter Securities researcher Wang Bingru said.

Key companies

Pathfinder: in the golden age of industry expansion

The beneficiary industry has a good boom, and the Pathfinder (300005, closing price of 17.52 yuan) is strong in recent years.

In June 28th, earnings forecast indicated that net profit in the first half of this year was 56 million 600 thousand ~6310 yuan, an increase of 30%~45% over the same period last year.

In this regard, Liu Yi said that in the outdoor industry, the international brand has obvious advantages, but the layout is mostly in the first and second tier cities, which left room for domestic brands to grow.

From the perspective of market share distribution, overseas brands occupy 6 seats in the top ten brands, accounting for 65.02% of the sales share, while the remaining 4 local brands are relatively fast growing, though the share is relatively low, which has laid a foundation for later pursuit.

In the first half of 2012, the company continued to strengthen channel construction, strengthen terminal management, and continue to maintain a relatively fast growth in operating income.

Changjiang Securities (000783, stock bar) analyst Lei Yu said, "Pathfinder officially opened the strategic layout of multi brand operation in 2012: creating a three brand strategy frame with the main brand Pathfinder as the core business, the high-end leisure brand Discovery and the e-commerce brand ACANU as the strategic business, and sharing the cake of the industry's high growth rate."

King of nine: intensive farming and growing stability

Male bear market share of the first nine Mu Wang (601566, closing price of 27.85 yuan) is now in a stable growth period. According to the statistics of Everbright Securities (601788, stock bar), the sales situation of the nine month's 4~5 month has improved, the growth rate is over 20%, the same store's growth rate is about 10%. The 300~500 stores in 2012 are mainly concentrated in the two or three quarter, and the growth of the medium-term performance of the nine Mu Wang is expected to be 20%~40%.

By the end of 2011, there were 3140 terminal channels, including 1673 shopping malls and 1467 stores.

The number of exclusive stores in the company is the least listed company's brand. It is the focus of future channel expansion, and has a larger growth space in the coverage and density of the two or three tier cities, which is in line with the direction of the king's channel.

In addition, Yu Xuhui, an analyst at Ping An Securities, pointed out that at present, the amount of accessories and accessories of the nine herd kings accounts for about 52%, which is lower than that of the counterparts 70%~80%. The proportion of jackets, T-Shirts, shirts and other tops in Future Ltd will increase year by year. This kind of products with higher gross profit and faster replacement frequency will be conducive to improving the terminal efficiency of the company.

In recent years, the company has achieved remarkable growth through the upgrading of shops and VIP management. It is expected that the growth of flat effect in 2012 is expected to be 10%~15%.

Card slave Road: single shop profits continue to improve

(002656, closing price of 44.83 yuan) a quarterly report shows that operating income was 168 million yuan, an increase of 36.48% over the same period last year, and net profit of 54 million 360 thousand yuan, an increase of 53.38% over the same period last year.

Card NDI road this year, more than 30 new stores, the company will accelerate the pace of opening stores in the second half of the year, it is expected that the second half of this year will speed up the opening of stores, the end of the year will be opened 80~90 stores, 30~40 stores, the total number of stores will reach 440~450 at the end of the year.

As a high-end men's clothing, the card slave road began to temper the internal strength, "gross profit margin increased, cost rate decreased, net interest rate increased significantly."

Japan's securities analysts pointed out that the gross profit rate of qnndi road in the first quarter was 66%, an increase of 1.61 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The sales cost rate, management fee rate and financial cost rate were 17.63%, 3.87% and -0.68% respectively, representing a decrease of 1.50 percentage points, 1.13 percentage points and 1.13 percentage points respectively.

Liu Yi believes that as the first high-end menswear brand listed by the company, in recent two years, the company has been able to maintain a rapid expansion rate because of the extension of the company. With the continuous improvement of brand image and competitive strategy and the continuous enhancement of fine operation and management level, it is expected to achieve the growth target of the company's mid term 50%~60%.