The Cost Side Is Good, And PET Bottle Tablets Will Usher In A Good Opportunity?

The Sino US trade war brought good news, PTA night plate soared, MEG shock upward. The positive signs of international trade relations were reproduced, and the demand side stocked up before the textile peak season.

As of the evening of 13, the price of PET bottles in the East China market is around 6875 yuan / ton, and the price is close to low in three years.

The cost side will be supported in the short term.

On the evening of 13, the United States postponed the 10% tariff faced by some Chinese products to the middle of December.

On the PTA side, when the device is restarted and new capacity is put into operation, the pressure of PTA supply still exists, but the profit recovery of polyester terminal and the resumption of repair capacity, to a certain extent, boosted PTA market, coupled with the sudden macro positive stimulation, it is expected that the current PTA market will blow a short wave of rebound horn, and the increase will be very limited.

Glycol is subject to the pressure of inventory, and the rate of increase will be limited.

Supply side is still tight.

From the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of polyester bottle film industry has gradually declined since June. At the beginning, the utilization rate of industrial capacity declined because of the great transformation of Zhejiang wankai 250 thousand ton plant and the 50% reduction of Anyang's chemical industry due to local environmental problems. However, since July, the utilization rate of industrial capacity has further declined, and has been gradually enlarged.

This is mainly due to the rapid rise in the price of PTA in the main raw material of PET bottles, and for a long time to maintain at a high level, resulting in increased cost pressures in PET bottle industry and a loss. Under the pressure of cost, PET bottle enterprises take the initiative to cut production. As of 13 days, polyester bottle chip industry started up to 71.82%, and supply is still relatively tight.

Demand side performance is relatively light.

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the PET bottle market is general. Manufacturers are still facing some pressure from shipping. Downstream demand continues to be slack, and short-term improvement is hard to see. Market supply and demand are weak in support of the market. At present, the market of polyester PET flakes has dropped to a relatively low level, and manufacturers continue to lower their price intention.

As of 14, when the cost side was favorable, the price of polyester bottle has been raised by 100-200 yuan, and the lower reaches of the market are acceptable.

To sum up, under the condition of poor demand for polyester bottles and tight supply of goods, the cost side or the straws of polyester bottle market will benefit from the cost side. Therefore, we expect that PET bottles will be warmer in the short run, and the cost side trend will be the focus in the later stage. (source: Zhuo Chuang, Jin Lianchuang)