How About The Recovery Of Auto Market After The Bottom Rebound Of "Promotion War" Among Auto Enterprises In Chengdu Auto Show?

This year, China's car market to survive, after the first quarter of the tragic "Waterloo", the second quarter finally gradually improved. According to the data of China Automobile Industry Association, domestic new car sales in the first quarter of this year were 3.67 million, down 42.4% year-on-year. According to the statistics of the second quarter, the sales volume of new cars decreased by 10.57% compared with the same period of last year. On the whole, the market has shown a downward trend.

For the vast majority of automobile enterprises and brands, the first half of this year is undoubtedly a miserable and painful period. How to release new products and carry out marketing activities according to the established plan in the depressed market environment is more challenging than ever.

On July 23, the 23rd Chengdu International Automobile Exhibition opened. In the first domestic A-class auto show since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, many automobile enterprise brands are ready to make efforts. According to the data, this Chengdu auto show has gathered more than 120 domestic and foreign automobile brands and more than 1500 vehicles, with an exhibition area of more than 160000 square meters. Compared with last year's situation, these data are not easy to see.

Whether the auto industry can continue to rebound after the whole year's decline in the second quarter is still questionable.

Selling cars is the top priority

What is different from the past is that the number of new cars in the exhibition is relatively small, and most brand owners are also focusing on the promotion of listed models.

According to the 21st century economic report, luxury brands have contributed to the appearance of most of the new models, including Mercedes Benz, Audi, Land Rover, Lincoln, Weilai and other luxury brands have released or listed their new models.

In the mid-term, Mercedes Benz has launched a new dual series of CLA, including Mercedes Benz and country. Among the second-line luxury brands, the hardline SUV guard of Land Rover was officially launched, while Lincoln appeared with the brand-new Lincoln aviator. However, Weilai, a new luxury brand of electric vehicles, has launched a medium-sized pure electric SUV ec6 which is benchmarked with Tesla Model y. The ec6, which originally planned to give the price according to the price of model y, was the first to give the market answer.

In comparison, joint venture brands and independent brands have fewer new models.

Among the joint venture brands, Dongfeng Citroen released its first new energy vehicle, Tianyi C5 Aircross PHEV. In addition, several of its flagship models, namely HHC and HHC, will be on display in September. However, the new models of HHC and HHC are expected to be on display in September, and the new models of HHC are expected to be on display in September.

The performance of each brand in the last auto show is different to a certain extent. Take the luxury brands that actively release new products as an example, which is the only segment market that outperforms the market in the first half of this year. The first half of this year, the retail sales of luxury brands were 1.05 million, an increase of 1% over the same period of last year, according to the data of the Travel Association.

However, it is difficult to distinguish the degree of care of each brand to the market. It is understood that although many brands have not released new models, they are still actively participating in the exhibition. On the one hand, they have launched new models released this year, on the other hand, they have also displayed their best-selling models and given promotional discounts. After all, this is the first large-scale auto show since the epidemic, and no one wants to miss this opportunity.

Slow recovery of auto retail

The overall situation of the automobile market, especially the passenger car market, is still not optimistic.

According to the data recently released by the passenger Federation, in the first half of this year, the retail sales volume of narrow sense passenger cars was 7.704 million, a year-on-year decrease of 22.5% -- higher than that of wholesale sales of the automobile industry. According to the data of CAAC, the sales volume of automobiles in the first half of the year was 10.257 million, down 16.9% year on year.

The reason for the gap is that the recovery progress of passenger car market is weaker than that of commercial vehicle market, and the recovery of retail sales volume is also weaker than that of wholesale sales.

The sales volume of commercial vehicles rose to a record high of 636.00% in the first half of this year, driven by the investment in infrastructure, the sales volume of commercial vehicles reached a record high of 636.00% in the first half of this year. In contrast, the wholesale sales volume of passenger cars in the first half of the year was 7.66 million, a year-on-year decrease of 22.9%.

The retail market, which is close to the average consumer, has recovered slowly - although car sales have picked up in the past two months, retail pressure remains. According to the data of China Automobile Circulation Association, in the latest June, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of national automobile dealers was 1.74, up 26.1% year-on-year and 12.3% month on month. The inventory level is above the warning line. This is also the inventory coefficient for two consecutive months after a rebound.

"Mainly due to various activities and policy subsidies in April and may to stimulate consumption, overdraft market demand." In the report, the Circulation Association said that at the wholesale end, due to the increase of sales promotion activities such as automobile exhibitions in many places and promotion in the middle of 618, automobile enterprises further increased the pressure on Dealers - both ends were squeezed, and inventory pressure soared. The association reminds that in the case of oversupply, dealers are prone to trade in quantity for the completion of assessment tasks, which eventually leads to the reduction of their own profits.

Can the V-shape trend continue?

In the second half of the year, will the market continue to recover the upward trend?

It can be used as a reference in July. Although there is a certain decline, but the overall trend is relatively stable. According to the latest data of the Federation of passenger cars, the average daily retail sales volume of passenger cars in the first three weeks of July was 32174, a year-on-year decrease of 2% and a month on month decrease of 7%; while from the wholesale sales of major manufacturers, the average wholesale sales volume of the first three weeks was 36918, an increase of 8% year-on-year, but a decrease of 11% month on month.

The Association expects that the retail market will show a seasonal decline in July, but it still shows a slight growth due to the low market base in the same period last year.

According to the analysis, the effect of local stimulus policy weakened in July, and the promotion activities of automobile enterprises and dealers also entered the adjustment period after experiencing the peak at the end of June. Meanwhile, the restrained consumption demand during the epidemic period was basically compensated in the second quarter, which made a very limited contribution to the sales volume in the second half of the year. In addition, the recent flooding in many places will also have an impact on the production, logistics and terminal sales of automobiles.

However, the SFC also pointed out that in the medium and long term, the external environment of the auto market will continue to improve, and the confidence in automobile consumption will gradually improve.

The release of automobile demand previously suppressed by the epidemic situation has promoted the recent stabilization of the automobile market. A number of central ministries and commissions have repeatedly released signals to promote automobile consumption, successively issued favorable policies such as reduction and exemption of value-added tax on second-hand cars, delay of implementation of the sixth national emission standard, and extension of new energy subsidies, which objectively promoted the recovery of the automobile market as soon as possible. In the second half of the year, with the restart of auto show, the launch of new cars and promotion of automobile enterprises, the industry is expected to have another chance to "fight".

For the prediction of the whole year's car market, the cooperation of China Automobile Co., Ltd. has made two dimensions of optimistic and pessimistic forecasts. "If the global epidemic situation is effectively controlled, the automobile market will continue to show stable development, and the annual automobile sales volume is expected to drop by about 10%; however, if the overseas epidemic situation continues to spread and has not been effectively controlled, the annual automobile sales decline may be about 20% Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Automobile Association, said it remains to be seen whether the car market can maintain a double-digit positive growth trend in May and June this year in the second half of this year.

According to the analysis of the travel union, the current domestic epidemic prevention and control bureau is facing a good situation. The stable growth policy in the second half of the year will promote infrastructure investment and play a continuous improvement role in the domestic economy. However, it will take a long time to transfer from the recovery of economic fundamentals to the promotion of consumer income, and then to the stimulation of traditional mass consumer demand such as automobiles, which lacks the support of demand compensation due to the shelved epidemic situation, Whether the car market will be stable in the third quarter needs further observation. After comprehensively considering the macro-economy, industrial policies and market environment, the passenger car Association predicts that the passenger car market will drop by 11% in 2020.