"Kim Gu Is Not Yet, Silver Ten Difficult Period", China'S Cotton Yarn Exports Significantly Reduced

 

It is worth noting that in August, the depreciation of the RMB was over 4%, and the CY2001 disk price fell from 21455 to 19965 (1490 points, or 6.94%), leading to the continuous improvement of domestic yarn competitiveness.

 

Cotton mills and export enterprises such as Henan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang indicated that since July, the export of 50S and above combs, Combed Yarns and compact spun yarn has opened up a relatively downward trend. Some manufacturers have to take measures such as reducing cotton yarn, distributing cotton, spinning synthetic yarn and increasing the output of blended yarn and new fiber yarn and so on to maintain production and reduce risks. In September, production and marketing did not start very well. "Kim Gu is not yet there, and silver is ten times difficult," so it is hard to predict that the export of cotton yarn is still weak.

 

The following points are analyzed and summarized.

 

First, the growth of global consumption of textile and clothing is weak or even in the face of rapid decline. The United Nations Trade and development report 2019 pointed out that the world economy is heading for a predicament. Trade frictions, exchange rate changes, corporate debts, no agreements to break Europe and the rate of return are all warning. Weak global demand in 2019, coupled with unilateral tariff actions by the US government, will slow down the growth of Global trade this year.

 

Two, the euro and pound continued to depreciate, and the cost of imported cotton yarn and spinning clothing increased sharply. According to statistics, in the first quarter and the two quarter of 2019, the European Union imported not only 10.2% of the garments from China, but also 5% of imports from India and Turkish garments in the second quarter, and 1.1% and 4.1% respectively, which affected the export of Chinese cotton yarn.

 

Three, the impact of Sino US trade war is infiltrating into the "body" through the "body surface". Not only the cotton mill's export orders are not enthusiastic, but European and American buyers are also cautious. Some mills said that because of the worry that the United States imposed tariffs on imported cotton yarns and spun garments, the foreign purchasers took the measures to lower the contract price or to transfer tariffs to Chinese production enterprises.

 

Four, the competitive advantage of domestic high count yarn is gradually weakening, and the product substitution ability of Southeast Asia is enhanced. On the one hand, a large number of domestic cotton mills are competing for and purchasing high cost national storage cotton, reducing the cost of spinning raw materials, and at the same time, leading to slipped quality index and stability of medium and high count cotton yarns. On the other hand, Vietnam, Indonesia, India and other countries are buying high quality cotton harvester such as American cotton, Australian cotton and Brazil cotton. The difference between high and medium count yarn combed yarn, combed yarn and domestic brand yarn has been shrinking, and the substitution of 60S and below cotton yarn has been enhanced.