Post Holiday Consumption Is Not Optimistic, PTA Rising Market Variables.

The low inventory before the Spring Festival makes the PTA price more flexible, but after the Spring Festival, it is hard to be optimistic because of the consumer side performance, and there are variables in the rising market, so investors should make good head management.

PTA futures prices began to rebound in January. The main reason is that the stocking enthusiasm of the downstream weaving factories before the Spring Festival is heating up, resulting in a significant reduction in the stock pressure of the polyester plant. On the other hand, the delayed accumulation of the PTA market is expected to be delayed after part of the device is overhauled or restarted.

Therefore, PTA futures prices in late 1 months in the strong rise in the exchange and investment atmosphere continues to rise, PTA more empty differences.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the low price of the stock market before the Spring Festival supports the futures price, but after the Spring Festival, the warehouse is expected to drag down the futures price.

Pet factory inventory decline

Since January, the international oil price has continued to rebound, giving the market stop signal. Most of the downstream polyester prices are at the lowest level since 2018, and the profit of polyester products is very low.

Although the market has a clear judgement on the difficulty of consumption in 2019, because weaving factories have many stocking habits before the Spring Festival, and in 2018, the business efficiency is relatively good, the funds are relatively abundant, and the stocking capacity is strong. Therefore, since the beginning of January, the sales of polyester factories have improved significantly, and their stocks have continued to decline.

By the middle of January, the stock of polyester staple fiber was basically cleared, and the stock of filament enterprises was at a low level.

As of late January, most of the weaving mills began to take off. Raw materials had been stocked for 20-30 days, and even raw materials were on the 45 day.

At present, the sharp decline in the stock of polyester factories is one of the main advantages of the market, which may affect the implementation of the maintenance plan during the Spring Festival, which is less than expected. The consumption of raw materials PTA exceeds expectations.

The warehouse is expected to be lowered.

Yam grand 2 million 250 thousand ton plant is scheduled to be restarted in mid 1, but it will be delayed for about 1 weeks in the middle of 1 months, which will affect about 30 thousand tons of output. The Yangzi Petrochemical 350 thousand ton plant was originally planned to restart in January, which is now postponed to March, affecting about 80 thousand tons of output. The Hua Ping Petrochemical 1 million 400 thousand ton plant was originally planned to overhaul 10 days in January, and the actual maintenance was extended to 30 days, affecting the output of nearly 80 thousand tons. The original planned parking of the unit of the Guangzhou Iron and chemical company was extended to more than a day, affecting the output of more than tons.

Overall, the above unit will lose more than 300 thousand tons of output in the first quarter due to extended maintenance time or delayed restart. The PTA first quarter is expected to be reduced from 900 thousand tons to 600 thousand tons.

It is understood that since the second quarter of 2018, only a large number of accumulating banks appeared in September, and other months were in stock. So at the end of 2018, PTA social inventories were at a historic low.

However, even after the first quarter of this year, the inventory level will be at a low level.

Consumption after holiday is not optimistic.

In the medium term, the uncertainty in the PTA market comes mainly from the start-up time of the downstream consumer market.

Before and after the Spring Festival in 2018, the enthusiasm of polyester was very high. However, after the Spring Festival, it was difficult to start the market because of the late arrival of workers. Until the end of March and early April, the high inventory of polyester products began to slow down.

This year will also be faced with a late arrival of workers. In order to cope with this situation, some weaving factories will accelerate production before the Spring Festival. They already have a certain product inventory and can be understood as overdraft after the Spring Festival.

In addition, the results of the massive storage in the polyester plant before the Spring Festival are likely to be less than expected during the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the product inventory returned to a high level. But after a large number of stockings before the Spring Festival, the expected stock of raw materials is expected after the Spring Festival, so the enthusiasm for stocking will be limited.

Therefore, before the Spring Festival, the weaving mill is stocking or producing ahead of time. It can only be said that the stock is pferred from polyester plant to weaving factory, from polyester to gray cloth, but it does not really enter the consumer link, so it is much overdrawn before the Spring Festival.

For the future consumption, the macro research is not optimistic, mainly due to the high leverage of the residents' consumption ability, so the industrial chain after the spring festival may face the pressure of high inventory.

Judging from the historical trend of PTA futures, prices continued to rise before the Spring Festival.

In the 2009-2018 years, except for 2014 and 2018, the price of PTA futures in other 8 years was all down before and after the Spring Festival.

Therefore, the price of PTA has a good elasticity at present, but crude oil is still an important indicator of the market. After the Spring Festival, it is difficult to be optimistic because of the consumer side performance, and there are variables in the market. Investors should make good head management.