Interest Rate Downward: The Current Stock Market Is Improving.

Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index hit 3400 points, hitting a new high in nearly two months. The volume of two cities in Shanghai and Shenzhen increased to nearly 1 trillion yuan, which also hit a new high in nearly a month. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 6.5%, rising for second weeks in a row, and its increase was the biggest increase in nearly 4 months since the end of June.

All these signs indicate that the stock market is improving.

However, the current stock market's good turn is not related to the fundamentals of macro-economy.

From the current data released, the fundamentals of the domestic macro-economy have not improved much, and the downward pressure on economic growth has not been slowed down.

At present, the A share market is improving, which has both the causes of the changes in the international market situation and the result of the deleveraging of the A share market.

In terms of theory and experience, the downward trend in financial market interest rates is the most important factor in stimulating stock prices to improve.

Since the 60s of last century, the prosperity cycle of the US stock market has always been linked to the low interest rate cycle.

For example, in 2008, the Fed's interest rate was the lowest in many years, which is the biggest driving force for the doubling of the US stock market.

Therefore, at present, China is

The interest rate or the deposit and loan benchmark interest rate are at the lowest level in history, which will become an important factor to stimulate the current stock market to become better.

Two, from the perspective of some economic data, the market is looking forward to the further easing of monetary policy of the central bank and the further reduction of interest rates in the financial market.

Meanwhile, in the fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the concept of "13th Five-Year" plan also became the driving force for the current stock market to rise.

It can be said that the current stock market is a good trend, but investors should also see that the stock market is likely to take profits.

As for how long this market can take, investors must pay close attention to it.

Judging from the international market, the global market has not only swept away panic in the past few months since October, but also in many countries, the share price, the exchange rate and the price of goods rose at the same time.

The turnaround in the emerging market is not only that the US's economic data are far less than expected, but that the market expects the fed to raise interest rates to postpone, making the flow of funds to the us begin to flow back to the emerging markets, and that oil producing countries are negotiating to reduce oil production and increase international oil prices, thereby driving the overall recovery of emerging market currencies.

In the final analysis, the international market is beginning to restore confidence.

For example, the RMB exchange rate reform in August.

A drop of less than 3% has led to uproar, which is the result of international investment and hedge funds.

When market signals are better, these tools are also the vanguard of asset price inflation.

Earlier, the sharp fall in the A share market was also related to these stylized pactions and financial derivatives.

As far as the current situation is concerned, after constant liquidation, the overhaul of the over-the-counter assets has come to an end. Coupled with the adjustment of the regulatory rules on the stock market stylized pactions and the rules for the use of financial derivatives, it is conducive to normalizing the self repair mechanism of the stock market, thereby increasing investor confidence.

Recently, whether the volume of stock market has increased significantly or the 6 paction days of the two financial businesses have increased continuously, it is clear that confidence in the stock market is beginning to recover.

The most important reasons for the good start of the stock market are the following two aspects.

First, interest rates in domestic financial markets began to decline.

The downward trend in the financial market not only means that the liquidity of the market is increasing, but also means that the financing cost of the market has begun to decline.

For example, the 10 year issue in October 14th.

The winning rate is 2.99%.

This is the first time it has fallen below 3% since December 2008.

The overall decline in interest rates in the financial market is the main reason for the downward pressure on the current economic growth and the heavy economic restructuring tasks in China. This means that since the beginning of this year, the central bank's policy of lowering interest rates and lowering interest rates has begun to guide short-term interest rates and long-term interest rates in the financial market to move downwards gradually. The interest rate pmission mechanism in the financial market is playing a role.