Xinjiang'S Long Staple Cotton Has Been Picking More Than Half, But The Market Has Not Yet Been Fully Launched.

Recently, a cotton grower in Awati county has revealed that the yield of long staple cotton has dropped sharply this year. The 76 Mu long staple cotton that he sowed is expected to produce 210-220 kg / mu per unit, which is about 45 kg / mu less than that of last year's 265 kg / mu.

"There are not a few cotton ginning plants to scale now."

Speaking of the sale of seed cotton this year, the cotton grower has been gloomy.

According to him, this year's long staple cotton is a "twists and turns", in addition to the decline in unit yields, seed cotton prices have also dropped a lot.

As of 13 days, when the lichen was divided into 33% long staple cotton seed cotton price of 7.80 yuan / kg, the high was also 8 yuan / kg, compared with the national day before the decline of 0.20 yuan / kg, compared with the same period last year fell 1 yuan / kg.

Even some enterprises say that in 2014/15, those who do the long staple cotton business generally take the "short and fast" route, and have made a "pot full", and most of the inventory enterprises are "deeply locked up", so far they can not get away.

So, this year, everyone is learning to be "good", and the ginning plants are "lying on the bridge to see the current". The brokerage firm is "irrelevant to their own affairs".

So, where is the future of long staple cotton this year? As an analyst has said, it depends on the target price policy. If the allowance for long staple cotton is higher than last year, cotton farmers can sell cotton at a low price, cotton mill at low prices and cotton spinning at low prices.

Most cotton growers do not recognize the current price.

"If the price is below 8.5 yuan / kilogram, you will lose money and will not sell it for the time being."

A mainland cotton grower in Akesu said that they sowed more than 450 acres of long staple cotton this year, a substantial increase of 320 Mu compared with last year. They intend to make a profit.

The cotton grower calculated: according to the current price of 8 yuan / kg, the yield per unit area is calculated by 220 kg / mu, so gross profit is about 1760 yuan per mu, but the cost of cotton growing in Xinjiang is limited.

It will cost more than 2000 yuan / mu, so the net profit this year will be -240 yuan / mu.

Cotton farmers insist on not selling at a loss, and the ginning factory is more concerned about risks than buying them.

On the 13 day, the boss of a ginning factory in Akesu said that most of the textile enterprises were still using the long staple cotton of the previous year, and the spot price of the new long staple cotton is still uncertain.

According to his estimate, the price of the 137 grade will reach 16000-16500 yuan / ton, and this year's long staple cotton is likely to run counter to last year's quotations.

The reasons are as follows:

First, the output of long staple cotton will double in 2015.

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According to the agricultural sector data, the area of long staple cotton reached the peak of 2 million mu in 2015. If the yield per unit area is 220 kg / mu and the average lint percentage of seed cotton is 32.5%, the total output of long staple cotton will reach 143 thousand tons this year.

The output in 2014 was about 72 thousand tons, that is to say, the production of long staple cotton in 2015 almost doubled compared with last year.

Second, not yet digested in 2014.

The number is large.

In the past 2013-2015 years, the output of Chinese long staple cotton has been increasing, of which 35 thousand tons in 2013, 72 thousand tons in 2014, and 143 thousand tons in 2015. From the data point of view, it is not only increasing year by year, but also increasing exponentially.

Under such circumstances, the number of long staple cotton carry over is increasing.

According to the projections of some traders, the number of cashmere cotton pferred to the factory in the previous year will be 5000-6000 tons.

Third, demand has decreased or increased in recent years.

Since 2013, China's long staple cotton prices have been going up and down, forcing many enterprises to increase the proportion of imported long staple cotton. To this year, the demand for long staple cotton is about 7.8-8.0 million tons.

That is to say, the long staple cotton has been surplus in 2015.

"Who will be able to blame the long staple cotton this year?"

A market source said that as of 13 days, Shandong, Ji'nan, Hebei, Shijiazhuang and other places 137, 237 grade long staple cotton out of stock quotes were 16800 yuan / ton, 16000 yuan / ton, compared with last week, 300 yuan / ton reduction.

As the new season long staple cotton is going to be listed in large quantities, many stock enterprises still have a large increase in inventory pressure, and most of them are selling at reduced prices.