China'S Cotton Production Is At An Unfavorable Competitive Position.

Although the state adopted a temporary purchasing and storage policy in 2011~2013, the price of the underside opened up to buy cotton, which provided strong support for the protection of cotton farmers' income. However, the domestic cotton area showed a declining trend year by year, and because of the excessive domestic and foreign cotton prices, the competitiveness of the domestic textile industry declined, and the national reserves exceeded 10 million tons, which resulted in huge cost.

Based on this, in 2014, the state adopted a target price policy instead of a temporary purchase and storage policy in Xinjiang. At the same time, it supplemented the quota subsidy of 2000 yuan / ton in the 9 provinces of the mainland, trying to protect the cotton farmers' reasonable income, stabilize cotton production and promote the sustainable development of China's cotton industry without affecting the market.

What is the effect after the implementation of the target price? From the perspective of market operation, the goal of subsidy does not affect the market price basically, and the final effect of stabilizing cotton production remains to be seen.

From a recent survey of cotton farmers' cotton planting intentions in 2015, the trend of a sharp decline in the area is basically determined. The area of the Yangtze River cotton and the Yellow River cotton area is reduced by more than 40%, and Xinjiang's reduction is more than 10%.

Even so, next year's policy adjustment (target price reduction) should also be a big probability event. In the next two or three years, the trend of the decline of cotton area may not be fundamentally reversed.

The change in cotton production is bound to affect.

At present, there are three visible impacts. One is that the market demand for cotton seeds in the cotton field in the mainland has been greatly reduced. The two is that some enterprises have lost confidence in the market and sold at low prices. Three is the delay of cotton farmers buying seeds.

Do these three points indicate that the "cold winter" of the cotton seed market has arrived?

I believe that the reduction of cotton planting area and regional changes will continue to affect the cotton seed industry. The cotton seed industry will face severe situation in the next few years, and cotton seed enterprises must prepare well for the winter.

At the same time, under the circumstances that the development environment of the industry is difficult to change, the operators of cotton seeds must change their contingency and seek opportunities in danger.

From the promotion of insect resistant cotton to self breeding, the development of Guoxin seed industry, which has been focusing on cotton seed management for 30 years, has been developing continuously. It is a basic experience to seize the opportunities brought by changes in the situation.

Facing the adjustment and influence of this round of policy, Guoxin seed industry will make strategic adjustment from three aspects.

First of all, we must firmly strengthen our confidence in the cotton market in the mainland.

Inland

Although the area has been greatly reduced, there should be an area of more than 15 million mu, and the demand for cotton seeds of about 10000 tons will win the trust of cotton growers as long as the varieties are good and the service keeps pace with them.

The current market is so cold, but in some areas of the Yangtze River cotton region, Guoxin H318 cotton seeds are still selling well or even out of stock. The reason is that good varieties are fundamental. In the future, efforts should be made to increase breeding and increase market share by market competitive varieties.

The second is to vigorously develop the Xinjiang market.

In the past two years, Guoxin

Hundreds of millions of investment, including the construction of a good cotton processing plant, an increase in the area of its own breeding farms, and a cooperative development of scientific research units, have provided the basic conditions for making a difference. The state mainly supports the development of Xinjiang's cotton growing area, and believes that in the future, Guoxin can contribute more to Xinjiang's cotton production.

Third, we should actively and steadily expand the scope of operation.

We should fully explore Guoxin's market network and brand value in the cotton market in the mainland, and market oriented, actively carry out the business of maize seeds in the mainland.

In addition, Guoxin hopes to do something to improve the competitiveness of China's cotton growing industry in the international market.

Through cooperation with China Agricultural University, Guoxin carried out experiments on machine picked cotton in the mainland, and achieved initial results. Combined with mechanization and simplified cultivation techniques, the cost of cotton planting was significantly reduced, and the basic income of cotton farmers was guaranteed.

Only cotton growers can benefit from cotton planting and make money. Cotton will have an area. Cotton seed operators will have the opportunity to serve the cotton farmers and develop themselves.