How Will Cotton Seeds Run In Xinjiang Before And After New Year'S Day?

In recent years, parts of Xinjiang are already frozen, and even if they are not covered by heavy snow, they are also cold and threatening. As of December 11th, the purchase of seed cotton in Akesu, Kashi, Le Le, Northern Xinjiang, Shihezi and Changji has come to an end. It is estimated that seed cotton processing will be completed by the end of this month, so the supply of cottonseed will reach its peak. That is to say, before and after new year's day, the cotton seed market will reach the highest peak in Xinjiang. So how will prices run?

　　 1. Cotton seeds are on a large scale. Price It will be pressurized.

Data show that as of December 10th, the total amount of lint processing in Xinjiang was 3 million 283 thousand tons, and the processing capacity is expected to reach 4 million tons by the end of this month. With a rough calculation of 4 million tons of lint cotton, the total output of cottonseed is about 400 ~ 40% (the average linen of Xinjiang cotton) is *59%=590 million tons. That is to say, from the end of September to the end of December, about 100 days, the total cotton seed volume in Xinjiang increased rapidly to 590-600 million tons. However, this year, the national cottonseed oil refineries generally began to crush at the end of October to the beginning of November. In addition, the operation rate of Xinjiang oil extraction plant is only about 38%-42%, and the mainland's Shandong and Hebei are about 35%. demand It is difficult to keep pace with the supply and pressure on prices.

　　 2. cottonseed There is a great pressure to go out of Xinjiang. 。

First, the cost of spanportation is relatively high. At present, the spanportation cost of Xinjiang South Xinjiang cotton seed to Hebei area is 1100-1150 yuan / ton, that is to say, the cost of spanporting cotton seeds to the mainland in Xinjiang is 0.55-0.57 yuan / Jin, which makes many oil mills prohibit or choose railway spanportation. In addition, in cold winter weather, it is hard to travel in cold weather. Many trucking drivers do not want to run on the Xinjiang line, causing freight to continue to go up and freight cars to decrease. Second, the railway spanportation encountered other urgent needs of foreign goods. The autumn and winter season is the busiest time for railway spanportation in Xinjiang. At this time, Xinjiang fruits, energy and other materials need to go out of the territory. Many seed traders reflect that cotton seeds are usually ordered in Xinjiang in November and December, and spanportation in Xinjiang usually takes 2 or second years in March.

3, cotton oil market downturn, business inventories grew faster.

As of 11 days, the northern Shihezi oil factory three level cottonseed oil production quotes at 4200 yuan / ton, individual spanactions in 4150 yuan / ton, unchanged from yesterday; northern Shawan oil factory three level cotton oil ex factory price at 4100 yuan / ton; southern Akesu oil factory three grade cotton oil production quotations 4050 yuan / ton, compared with yesterday; South Xinjiang Korla most oil factory three grade cotton oil factory quotations 4150 yuan / ton, unchanged from yesterday. Since the first ten days of December, the factory price of grade three cottonseed oil in Xinjiang oil refinery has been "clear, steady and dark", with a drop of 150-200 yuan / ton. The downward trend of the center of gravity is basically the main market of cotton oil in recent years, and the sales of cottonseed oil are rather late, which is unfavorable to the late market of cottonseed.

4, cottonseed meal as a whole is weak, and the price range is offline.

The factory quoted a price of 1850 yuan / ton, unchanged from yesterday. The factory price of 44% protein cottonseed meal was 1950 yuan / ton, unchanged from yesterday. The price of 46% protein cottonseed meal was 2030 yuan / tonne, unchanged from yesterday. The 46% price of the cottonseed meal in the Shawan area was 42% yuan / ton, which was unchanged from yesterday. The price of the 42% protein cottonseed meal in the southern part of the Akesu oil refinery was 1850 yuan / ton (water content), which was unchanged from yesterday. 11, 42% protein cottonseed meal in Shihezi oil refinery in North Xinjiang, Xinjiang Due to the four major adverse effects, Xinjiang cottonseed has hardly gone up.

On the 11 day, the output price of maocotton seed in Shihezi area in Northern Xinjiang was 0.81 yuan / kg (seed oil 13%, moisture 10%), and the outlet price of cottonseed seed was 0.84-0.85 yuan / kg (light seed oil 15%, moisture 9%), and it was flat compared with yesterday. The cottonseed cottonseed price in the Shawan area of the northern Xinjiang oil field is 0.885 yuan / jin (light seed oil 15%, moisture 9%). It is flat compared with yesterday. In the southern Akesu area, the cotton seed cotton seed to the develvet factory price is 0.82-0.83 yuan / jin (seed oil 12% 12%, water 12%), and the price of light cottonseed to oil factory is 0.85-0.86 yuan / jin (light seed oil content 12%, water content), which is unchanged from yesterday. However, because the cost support and the price of the ginning plant are very strong, it is expected that the cotton seed will not drop too much in Xinjiang before and after the new year's day. Its market or maintain 0.80-0.85 yuan / Jin interval fluctuations. It is also expected that sales will be mainly based on "swallowing water". However, in the long term, the cotton seed production in this year has been greatly reduced, and there may be some improvement before and after the Spring Festival. However, the cottonseed oil and cottonseed meal market needs to be improved to thaw cotton seeds.