At Present, China'S Textile Industry Is A Declining Industry In A Strict Sense.
<p> 产业<a href="http://?www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp">生命周期</a>曲线是产品生命周期曲线的包络线,通常情况下产业生命周期分为四个阶段,各阶段具备不同的特征:1)导入期,企业数量少,集中程度高;技术不成熟,产品品种单一,质量较低且不稳定;市场规模狭小,需求增长缓慢,需求的价格弹性也很小;产业利润微薄甚至全产业亏损;进入壁垒低,竞争程度较弱,产品定价各自为政;2)成长期:大量厂商进入,产业内部集中程度低;生产技术日渐成熟和稳定,产品呈现多样化、差别化,质量提高且稳定;市场规模增大,需求增长迅速,需求的价格弹性也增大;产业利润迅速增长且利润率较高;进入壁垒低,内部竞争压力大,竞争形式主要表现为价格竞争;3)成熟期:产业集中程度高,出现了一定程度的垄断;<a href="http://?www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp">技术</a>较成熟, Product differentiation, product quality is higher, the growth rate of market demand slows down obviously, the price elasticity of demand decreases, the profit of the industry reaches a very high level, the entry barrier is high, mainly manifests as the scale barrier, the competition means turns to the non price method; the longer duration is the stable stage of the industrial development; if there is technological innovation, there will be a longer sustained growth; 4) in the recession period: the number of manufacturers is decreasing; the demand is decreasing gradually; the sales are decreasing; the profits are decreasing; the new products and substitutes are appearing in large numbers, and the competitiveness of the original industry is decreasing. < /p >
< p > for the general < a href= "http:// www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > industry < /a >, its life cycle can be divided into germination stage, growth stage, maturity stage and recession stage. From the perspective of industrial growth, it can be divided into seven sub industrial stages: (1) young industry: in the initial stage of development, because the scale of production is too small, the cost is too high, and the technology is immature, it can not enjoy the advantages of economies of scale and lack of international competitiveness; (2) emerging industries: the industry is in the stage of growth, showing that the overall market demand of the industry is not large, but the growth rate is very fast. Even if the proportion of the industrial structure in a short period is very small, it will have a greater effect on the whole industrial structure from a longer period of time. (3) sunrise industry: the further development of new industries, the continuous maturity of technology, the continuous decline of average cost, the continuous expansion of industrial scale and the increasing demand of the market; (4) mature industries: showing a growth slowdown and a relatively stable proportion in the whole industrial structure system. Becoming a pillar industry is a symbol of the emerging industry entering a mature stage; (5) declining industries: due to the gradual aging of technology, the gradual shrinking of market demand and the rising cost of average, the industry of decreasing returns to scale and the declining position and role of the industrial structure in the whole industrial structure; (6) sunset industry: declining industries will continue to decline, unable to get the support from the government, and there is no major breakthrough in technology to reform the original technological conditions and to withdraw from the market industry or industrial cluster; (7) the elimination industry: the industry that has withdrawn from the market due to the aging of technology, shrinking demand, rising costs, rising costs and long-term losses. < /p >
<p> 通过梳理纺织业的发展历史,2004年是我国纺织业发展的顶峰阶段,自2008年起,纺织行业的运行环境出现了较大的变化,(1)从需求端来看,纺织业作为传统的出口强势产业,近几年来,随着以劳动力为代表的生产成本不断上升,在越南等东南亚低成本国家的分流作用下,出口优势不断弱化,低端产能面临转移的大趋势,从外贸出口数据来看,成衣出口额的增加、化纤和纺织品的进口额不断增长;与之形成对比的是国内快速的工业化带来城市人口的大量增加,国内消费市场快速扩大,内销市场更容易进入;(2)从供给端来看,目前中国的纺织业具备更宽泛的纺织品和成衣生产,化纤、家纺、产业用纺织品也处于快速发展阶段;(3)从行业的规模收益来看,纺织业规模收益逐渐下降,纺织产业规模逐渐缩小并在整个产业结构中的地位和作用不断下降;随着纺织产品需求 Growth and deceleration, the textile industry investment return rate continues to be lower than the average of various industries, and showing a downward trend. In view of the fact that China's textile industry has gradually reduced its scale returns and gradually reduced its industrial size and its position and role in the entire industrial structure due to rising costs, we believe that the textile industry should be attributed to declining industries in a strict sense. < /p >
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