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Zhang Wei: Can Draghi Continue To Suppress The Euro?

2014/7/2 21:55:00 36

1: fundamental analysis 
 yesterday (01 July), the US dollar mixed with other major currencies, and the pound continued to rise strongly against the US dollar, breaking through many historical highs. In terms of economic data, the US Markit manufacturing industry index in June (final version) was 57.3, slightly lower than the 57.5 previously announced. Although the index has slipped slightly, it is still the highest since May 2010. In June, the US ISM manufacturing index dropped from 55.4% in May to 55.3%. Economists surveyed by MW expect the index to rise to 55.7% on average. In Europe, the euro area Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has a final value of 51.8, compared with the initial value of 51.9. 
 but Markit in June, the UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index ended at 57.5 points, higher than the 57 expected by economists. In addition, the number of seasonally adjusted unemployment in Germany increased by 9000 to 2 million 920 thousand in June, while the adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%. Most of the world's major indexes closed up, and the three major U.S. stock indexes closed up. Strong manufacturing data pushed the Dow and the S & P 500 to a new high at the same time, while Europe's three largest indexes closed up, with BNP of Paris rising 3.6%, after which the bank reached a total settlement of nearly 9 billion dollars with the US authorities; the major Asian Pacific stock indexes closed higher and the Nikkei gained 1.08%. Gold prices climbed slightly to 1332. after 90, slightly down, closing at 1326.30 U.S. dollars / ounce, the overall trend is still at a high adjustment stage. 
 > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > market < /a >, as of the end of the day, 1 euros to 1.3678 U.S. dollars, lower than the previous trading day of 1.3692 U. S. dollars, 1 pounds to 1.7148 U. S. dollars, higher than the previous session of 1.7108 U. S. dollars, 1 Australian dollars for 0.9490 dollars, higher than the previous day's 0.9427 U. S. dollars, 1 U. S. dollars to 101.52 yen, higher than the previous day's yen. Against the backdrop of recent changes in economic information and fundamentals, the euro dollar exchange rate rebounded to a high level of 1.37, making it difficult for the European Central Bank's easing measures to be held at the June meeting to effectively curb the euro's strengthening. This means that after that, Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank governor, will press the euro exchange rate again through the wording of words at the press conference on Thursday July 4th. 
P will therefore further press the euro exchange rate in a press conference speech. In addition, the US non farm payrolls data released on Thursday may also have a further impact on the foreign exchange market. But if the US non farm employment growth in June did not unexpectedly increase significantly, the low yield of US Treasury bonds would keep the dollar exchange rate under pressure in June. In this case, if the ECB did not say anything at this week's meeting, then the euro would hit a 1.3750 high in the latter half of this week, and further test the impact of the 1.3800 barrier. 
[P] today, Wednesday (July 2nd), before the advent of Thursday's European bank resolution and the US non farm data, the market worried about Delaki's possible intervention in the euro exchange rate, and was generally optimistic about the non farm data released by the United States. Speculation in the market on Wednesday is like the final preparation before the storm comes. During the Asian session, investors need to focus on Australia's goods and services trade account data. In the context of the Fed's failure to release pigeon rhetoric and the favorable economic data of China, the Australian dollar will continue to maintain its strength. The data in the day will give further guidance to the market. In the European session, British investors are focusing on the housing price index and the PMI data of construction industry, which will have a significant impact on the sterling exchange rate. Despite the anticipation of the Bank of England raising interest rates ahead of time, and the recent good British data supporting the continued rise in the pound, there are many problems in the UK's domestic property market. The UK housing market data released during the day have become an important clue to the recent market glimpse of the housing market in the UK, which will have an important impact on the pound. In the end, in New York, the United States will still publish a lot of economic data, including the number of layoffs, ADP employment and factory order monthly rate. Among them, the number of ADP employees is known as "small non-agricultural" by investors, and its importance is obvious. Most important data in the US will set a keynote for the market trend in New York, and investors need to pay close attention to it. In addition, investors in Ukraine and Iraq can not afford to ignore them. More technical analysis, operation mentality analysis concerns potatoes Youku Zhang Wei foreign exchange video solution. 
 strong > Two: < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > technical surface < /a > analysis /p >
 < a href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > Gold > /a > dollar strategy: 
 gold continued to enter the adjustment stage after the sharp increase in the day before yesterday, and now the area ranges from 1330 to 1323. The average line is long, and the future situation will be more. At present, the price of gold has been down several times after the 1330 resistance fails, and the short-term kinetic energy will stagnate. The daily operation direction is still considered to be more than 1320 below. 
 main strategy: 1322 near do more, target 1332, stop loss 1318 
 Euro versus US dollar strategy: 
 Europe and the United States did not fall to the target price yesterday. Today's strategy continues to follow yesterday's train of thought, focusing on the 1.3660 front line support situation, and doing more dips. 
 main strategy: 1.3660 near do more, target 1.3710, stop loss 1.3640 
 pound versus US dollar strategy: 
 main strategy: 1.7115 near do more, target 1.7165, stop loss 1.7100 
 US dollar to Japanese yen strategy: 
 main strategy: 101.50 near do more, target 101.90, stop loss 101.30