Foreign Trade Data Review: Export Stall Exchange Rate Pressure

< p > data performance: in February 2014, China's exports decreased by 18.1%, imports increased by 10.1%, and trade reverse amounted to 22 billion 980 million US dollars. < /p >
In the first quarter of February, China's exports dropped by 18.1% unexpectedly. The Spring Festival factor was partly due to a 1.6% drop in the first two months, and a stall risk occurred. < /p >
< p > two, Europe and the US are turning to remanufacturing, and their recovery has not led to China's export. Trade between the United States, Europe and Japan has maintained a low speed. In February, the US ISM manufacturing index recovered to 53.2 (only 51.3 in January). In February, the euro area PMI remained at 53.2 highs, and it continued for 8 consecutive months on the 50 level. Although the February overseas a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > economic data < /a > supporting export demand, however, it is not reflected in China's February exports, and the developed countries such as the United States have turned to remanufacturing means that China's exports should not be optimistic. The Hong Kong trade continued to fall sharply, proving that the "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "false trade < /a > arbitrage space has been greatly reduced. Exports of labor intensive and high-tech products have dropped. < /p >
< p > three and February, import growth rate was stable at 10%, or affected by low base and trade financing. The import volume of major commodities increased and prices fell, and port stocks rose. At present, China's port iron ore inventory has reached a record high of 1.06 billion tons, up by 50% over the same period last year, which means that the doubt that a large number of iron ore imports belong to trade financing is not groundless. < /p >
< p > four and February, there was a huge deficit of US $23 billion, reflecting the outflow of hot money and increasing the pressure of exchange rate depreciation. < /p >
< p > five, considering the developed countries' a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > the economy < /a > remanufacturing, and the emerging market turmoil has not completely subsided, it is predicted that exports in March will remain -2.1% compared with the same period last year, and the import growth rate will further slow down to 2.4%. Trade forecast for March is still $9 billion 170 million deficit. < /p >
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< p > Monday, the central price dropped by 111 points, hitting a new low in the year. It is also the biggest single day decline since July 28, 2012, strengthening the expectation of RMB depreciation, triggering a frenzied attack on the US dollar in the early morning, but the intervention of the suspected regulators did not take the lead. < /p >
After the Spring Festival, the RMB exchange rate showed a two-way fluctuation trend. Since its rapid devaluation of more than 1000 points in mid February, it has rapidly appreciated again last week until Friday, when the market depreciated again. < /p >
< p > Shen Jianguang, managing director of Mizuho Securities Asia company, expects that the large floating of RMB will be more common this year, which is consistent with the anticipation of policy making to push forward the marketization of exchange rate. It is expected that the RMB will continue to stabilize the package currency this year, and the fluctuation of the US dollar will be greatly increased. < /p >
< p > the people's Bank of China authorized the China foreign exchange trading center to announce that the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market in March 11, 2014 was RMB 1 yuan to RMB 6.1327 yuan, 1 euro to RMB 8.5076 yuan, 100 yen to RMB 5.9380 yuan, 1 Hong Kong dollar to RMB 0.79021 yuan, 1 pounds to RMB 10.2060 yuan, 1 Australian dollar to RMB 1 yuan, Canadian dollar to RMB RMB yuan, RMB yuan to lringgit, RMB yuan to Russia ruble. < /p >