Cotton Stocks Are Surprisingly High, And Cotton Farmers Can Not Afford To Hurt Them.
although
cotton
(19205,50.00,0.26%) it is nothing more than an ordinary crop. At the moment, several warehouses filled with cotton in the port of Huangdao, Qingdao, have aroused concern.
In the warehouse of a logistics enterprise in the bonded area, the management told our reporter that the utilization rate of the warehouse was 70%-80% in the past, but the utilization rate has been kept at 100% since the second half of last year, and most of the inventory is over one year.
In addition, the warehousing plan is always greater than the outbound plan, and cotton queuing is very serious.
cotton
Price drop
It is also very serious. At the end of 2010, it was 30 thousand yuan per ton, but now it has dropped to about 16 thousand yuan per ton, a drop of nearly 50%.
Stock
Odd high prices are extremely low.
It has been reported that a few days ago in the Huangdao customs bonded warehouse monitoring room, almost every cotton warehouse was full of cotton, and there were only 3 bonded warehouses which normally store cotton. Now it has increased to 7. Basically, the warehouse of cotton can be stacked up.
In the warehouse of the bonded area, the stacks of cotton are close to the roof, and such a warehouse is quite loose.
Here is a cotton imported in July 2011. The logistics company said that the backlog of one year at the Huangdao port has become commonplace. In the past, traders even had tens of thousands of tons of goods in hand, and now there are too many tens of thousands or even 100 thousand tons of goods.
The backlog of inventory has led to a sharp fall in cotton prices.
It is understood that in April this year, cotton prices have dropped from high to 22 thousand yuan per ton.
After two months, the current cotton price is 19 thousand yuan per ton.
It is understood that the national cotton industry inventory of about 1 million 22 thousand tons, an increase of 2.4% over the same period.
Anhui, Fujian, Jiangsu and other 4 provinces have relatively large inventory of cotton industry.
Up to now, this year's domestic cotton inventory grim situation is gradually obvious.
The number of domestic inventories has reached a new high since September 2008, which is nearly 10 days higher than the normal value of 35 days.
Production and storage forecasts show that domestic cotton final inventory will reach 70.65% in 2011/2012, 47.7 percentage points higher than the previous year.
The grim situation of inventory is spreading all over the world.
Recalling the USDA's monthly supply and demand forecast data this year, from the February supply and demand report, the forecast of 13 million 232 thousand tons of global stockpiles was adjusted to 13 million 569 thousand tons in March, then to 14 million 386 thousand tons in the supply and demand report in April, and the inventory consumption ratio was adjusted to 61.3%.
Among them, the global inventory forecast in May was 16 million 57 thousand tons.
The reduction in output and willingness to plant cotton and a slight increase in global consumption clearly did not effectively reduce the pessimism of the larger stock market.
Cotton farmers can not afford to hurt.
Domestic cotton prices continue to decline, the most direct victims are cotton farmers.
According to the China Textile Economic information network, there are tens of thousands of pounds of cotton in the warehouse of Zhao Jianpu, a large cotton farmer in the big Zhao village of Puyang province. He complained: "it is not sold, but the price is too low to be sold. Selling at the present price will not bring back the cost."
According to Zhao Jianpu, in order to get rich as soon as possible, he contracted 260 acres of land in Shandong and Dongying last year, and all of them planted cotton.
Cotton was growing well, but it was catching up with rainy weather as soon as it reached the picking period. The rain and the long duration led to a significant decline in cotton production.
To add insult to injury, cotton prices have gone down this year.
In order to wait for a good price, he hired a car to pport cotton harvested from Shandong to Puyang's old home for storage. But until now, cotton prices are still showing no signs of rising.
The plan is to make a profit by planting cotton, but the result is that the cost is rising, the output is reduced, the price is low, and even the capital is hard to recover, which makes Zhao Jianpu miserable.
The storage needs to be watched by others, and cotton is also affected by damp and damaged.
In order to increase efficiency, the more than 70 thousand kilograms of cotton hoarding will be sold as soon as possible, and the cost will be recovered. Zhao Jianpu tries to sell cotton into quilt cover.
However, due to information failure, sales channels are still sluggish. Only occasionally, there are several villagers who are married in the neighbouring villages to celebrate their wedding events.
To this end, Zhao Jianpu hopes to find big buyers through newspapers.
It is hoped that the enterprises and people who are in need will reach out to help the peasant brothers.
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Imported cotton is not expected.
Domestic cotton prices are low and cotton farmers are reluctant to sell, so cotton textile companies are looking for cheaper cotton imports, but they are often disappointed.
According to reports, recently, Liu Yunyong, manager of Shandong Fengyuan textile mill, went to Qingdao bonded area to run special diligently. The purpose is to see if there is any way to buy imported cotton in the port warehouse.
Liu Yunyong said: "now we are waiting for the use of cotton, waiting for cheap cotton. Now, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton is about 2000 yuan per ton. This gap should be very large."
Such cheap imported cotton is not for use.
According to the current regulations, cotton is restricted to import commodities, and enterprises must apply for quotas.
However, the import quotas that have been issued in recent years have not been seen this year, and enterprises can not afford to buy them.
According to the national cotton import tariff policy, import cotton quota includes 1% tariff quota and sliding tax quota two parts.
The so-called sliding quasi tax is a tariff rate with the price of imported goods from high to low set up from low to high tariffs, the higher the price of imported goods, the lower the import tariff rate, the lower the price of imported goods, the higher the import tariff rate.
Its main feature is to maintain the relative stability of the domestic market price of sliding quasi tax products and minimize the impact of price fluctuations in the international market.
In September last year, the national development and Reform Commission announced the import quota of 1% cotton tariff in China in 2012, the number of which was 894 thousand tons, and the quota has remained unchanged since 2004.
Because the state has higher requirements for the qualification of enterprises within the 1% tariff quotas, so for the vast majority of small and medium-sized enterprises, the issuance of cotton quasi tax quotas is more substantial for them.
According to past practice, the issuance of quasi tax quotas will normally be increased according to market conditions.
Due to the low domestic cotton prices and the low enthusiasm of cotton growers, the tax quota was sluggish in 2012.
Since the second half of last year, domestic cotton prices have continued to be higher than imported cotton prices. The highest price difference is close to 3000 yuan / ton, leading to a large influx of cheap cotton to China.
According to statistics, in September 2011 -2012 April, China's total imports of cotton 3 million 751 thousand tons, an increase of 1 million 804 thousand and 800 tons, an increase of 92.74%.
However, due to the delay in the issuance of quasi tax quotas, the shortage of quotas began to appear in February this year. Due to the failure to import quotas, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises imported cotton can only be backlog in the port and unable to declare.
Overloading of clothing is difficult to release.
It is also reported that the clothing industry downstream of the textile industry has also encountered high inventory problems in the past one or two years. Does the shrinking market demand mean that the inventory pressure of cotton will not be released for a long time? If we sell the garments in the national stock market at present, we will not be able to sell them in three years.
It has been reported that there are three traditional ways to solve these problems: discount, electricity supplier and direct camp.
As a matter of fact, discount sales is a common way for apparel textile companies to handle the over season goods, but this method will reduce the gross profit margin of the company. If it slows down expansion, that is, slowing down the shop opening speed, then the new store needs to reduce the stock of stocking, although its stock will also be reduced, but this is a way that the stock has risen to a certain extent and is difficult to solve after years of difficulty.
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