It Is About To Announce The July CPI&Nbsp; The Turning Point Will Be Clear.

And when the economic data are released.

According to the arrangement of the National Bureau of statistics, a series of economic data, including CPI and PPI, will be released tomorrow (August 9th).

As the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 6.4% in June, the "arch" reached a new high of 3 years. Therefore, the industry is sticking to the "inflection point" of the July economic data.

Among them, more views tend to "CPI is hard to record high in July", because the price of pork has begun to stabilize gradually, and the influence of the tail factor is gradually weakening. Therefore, there is little possibility that the CPI increase will continue to rise obviously in July, which means the current round.

Tang Jianwei, senior macroeconomic analyst at Bank of communications Financial Research Center, said that according to the data monitored by Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of agriculture, the price of edible agricultural products has narrowed since July, but it still keeps small.

The rise in pork prices is considered to be an important factor in pushing up this round of price rises.

However, this situation has changed.

Statistics from the Ministry of Commerce showed that in from July 25th to 31st of this week, the price of edible agricultural products monitored by the Ministry of Commerce dropped, with pork prices falling by 0.5% and the decline by 0.3 percentage points.

This is the first week after the first round of pork prices down this week, second weeks down.

Insiders say that pork prices tend to be stable, which means that prices have reduced an important factor in the chain, and the favorable conditions for controlling prices are increasing.

Gao Shanwen, chief economist at Anxin securities, said that the rise of pork prices in the current round has been going on for about a year. Most of the cycle of pork price rise may have been completed and may begin to emerge from the fourth quarter of.

However, when prices of pork and vegetables are slowing down, eggs, edible oil and other agricultural products will become new drivers of price increase.

According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, the retail price of domestic cooking oil rose 0.3% in the week of from July 25th to 31st.

Retail prices of peanut oil and rapeseed oil rose by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively. Soybean oil prices were flat compared with the previous week; retail prices of eggs rose 0.8% from the previous week, or 0.2 percentage points, up 2.3% from the end of June.

The Ministry of Commerce said that retail prices of eggs will still rise slightly in the latter part of the year.

Pork and vegetables in July

Tang Jianwei said that the three quarter will be the turning point of price in the year, and the price increase will slow down in the fourth quarter.

Of course, in the long run of labor costs, international commodity prices are still hovering high and domestic inflation expectations are still strong, and other factors, the price drop may be limited in the year. By the end of 11 and December, CPI will probably remain around 4% in the same period, and the average annual increase of CPI will be around 5.2%.

Li Huiyong, executive general manager and chief macroeconomic analyst of the macro strategy Department of Shenyang Wanguo Securities Research Institute, said that "inflation is pressing ahead of the mountain."

He said that the main task of the current macroeconomic regulation and control is to control prices and adjust house prices. Before inflation falls, the policy tightening pattern is hard to change.

In addition to the expansion of the limited purchase, monetary policy still has a large probability of use.

Raising interest rates and raising reserve requirements are still possible.

With inflation falling, the 4 quarter policy is expected to stabilize.

Insiders said that the National Bureau of statistics will announce the CPI in July, which will become a weathervane to observe the recent macroeconomic trend in China.