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Analysis Of The Impact Of The Japanese Earthquake On The Spinning And Weaving Sector

2011/3/15 16:57:00 84

Investment tips:

We analyzed the Japanese earthquake on China's textile industry.

Garment industry

And to screen and summarize the relatively high proportion of export companies.

We believe that the companies with relatively high incomes in Japan will suffer negative pressure in the short term, but the medium and long term demand will be restored. In the future, it may be stimulated by post disaster reconstruction to stimulate consumption.

Reason:

In terms of export manufacturing, China's textile and apparel exports to Japan amounted to US $21 billion 258 million in 2010, accounting for 10.7% of the total exports of the industry.

Japanese textile and apparel consumption accounts for 3~5% of the world, and short-term fluctuations will not have a significant impact on the demand side of the whole industry.

The order received (the next 2~3 months shipped) is not affected.

Soon after the earthquake, companies were not yet required to adjust orders for Japanese customers.

The export orders for textile and garment industry are usually determined in advance of 2~3 months. The credibility of Japanese customers is relatively high, and the possibility of cancelling the order is smaller.

However, some factories in China will not take the initiative to share the pressure and negotiate with Japanese customers.

Japan's energy supply is tight recently.

Retail door

When the shops are closed, the consumption desire of the people in the disaster area may be reduced, and the local clothing retailing will be negatively affected.

Demand for orders is likely to be weak in the coming months.

Clothes are necessities of life. When the Japanese people return to normal life, clothing consumption demand will resume and may be stimulated by post disaster reconstruction.

Therefore, in the medium to long term, the negative impact is small.

The upstream manufacturing industry accounts for 002486 of the A share listed companies with relatively high export earnings to Japan: Jialin Jie (Japan: 28.54%), 600233 Great Yang creation (Asia except China: 25.21%), 002494 shares of China (East Asia: 19.73%), 600626 Shenda shares (Japan and South Korea: 15.65%), 600735 Xinhua Jin (Japan: 13.24%), 000726 Lu Tai A (Japan and South Korea: 000726)

Hong Kong stock companies include: 2313.HK Shenzhou International (Japan: 52.54%), 551.HK Yuyuan group (Asia: 39.4%), 1382.HK mutual Textiles Holdings (Japan and other markets: 14.12%), 2698.HK Wei Qiao textile (East Asia: 7.36%)

Brand clothing, China

Local clothing

Brands are sold very little in Japan, and the denial of production and other links is relatively low, so they are almost unaffected.

However, some listed companies in Hong Kong share brand and retail business in the Japanese market, and their performance may be negatively affected: 3818.HK China trend (Japan: 14.29%)

In addition, some Hong Kong share consumer Brand Company have Japanese business, which will be negatively affected in the near future: 973.HK L'OCCITANE (Japan: 23.7%), 1086.HK good kid (Japan and other new markets: 12.34%).