Supply And Demand Is Tight &Nbsp; Expect PTA Years Later Quotation.

1. Crude oil remains at a high level.

Recently, a lot of economic data in the United States are favorable, while demand is expected in the winter season. The US crude oil inventories continue to decline, pushing international crude oil to the US $90 mark, a record high of nearly 27 months.

It is expected that crude oil will continue to run at a high level, driven by demand growth expectations, loose monetary policy and commodity index funds, and is expected to test the US $100 mark.

The strong performance of crude oil has strong psychological support for chemical varieties.

Two, the supply is escalating.

Since the beginning of the new year, the price of PX has continued to rise.

In January, the Asian PX contract was fully settled at 1380 US dollars / ton CFR, up 105 US dollars / ton compared with ACP in December last year.

Sinopec's PX listing price in January was 11000 yuan / ton, up 800 yuan / ton compared with December last year.

Because Malaysia aromatics company AMSB located at Kertih's 550 thousand ton / year PX device unexpectedly stopped, the supply situation of PX in Asia has further deteriorated, stimulating PX prices to rise to a 29 month high.

It is expected that the supply of goods will be tight in February. The upward trend may continue to the 1 quarter. Due to the considerable profit of PTA, it will maintain high load and demand for PX. The PX price is expected to maintain upward trend, which will push up the cost of PTA.

Three, polyester production capacity has been put on the market.

With the closing of the year, the upstream and downstream markets have entered the overhaul period. Currently, there are about 10 sets of pet plants involving about 2 million tons, which plan to arrange parking inspection before and after the Spring Festival, accounting for about 7% of the total capacity of the polyester.

According to past experience, every year from 1 to February is mostly the overhaul season of polyester factories, but these polyester devices are unlikely to have centralized overhaul in the short term, and more are dispersed for overhaul. It is estimated that the comprehensive operation load of domestic polyester will gradually drop from 80% to 87% near the peak of the Spring Festival before and after the Spring Festival, and the PTA demand will be reduced by 90 thousand to 100 thousand tons / month, equivalent to that of the PTA.

But before and after the Spring Festival, about 1 million 400 thousand tons of polyester plant, such as Xinmin, Hengli, Rongsheng, Xinfeng Ming and ancient migration Road, will be put into operation, and the potential demand for PTA is still strong.

The supply and demand side of PTA remained tight.

Four, close to the end of the year, downstream demand for stock down

The price of polyester filament has rebounded steadily between 1000 and 1500 yuan per ton after the replenishment of the downstream weaving factories before the beginning of the month and the cost of polyester raw materials.

At present, the market has entered the preterm and rest period. The mainstream factory polyester filament stock pressure is not big, mainstream factory polyester POY stock in 8 to 10 days, polyester FDY stock in about 10 days, polyester DTY stock in 12 to 15 days.

Beginning in the middle of the year, the weaving factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces will soon enter the Spring Festival holidays. Before the festival, the stocking will be over for a while. The stock can be used before and after the Spring Festival. There is little possibility of big fluctuations in the market before the Spring Festival. The market of polyester filament will enter the rest period, with stable small oscillation.

Five, PTA

Driven by the positive stock preparation before the end of the Spring Festival by the end users, the supply of contracted goods from mainstream suppliers has been generally cut since 2011, due to the expected new production capacity of polyester and the end-users' active looking for spot to fill the supply gap of contract goods.

Supply reduction and pre - storage demand stimulate Chinese end-users to actively purchase.

PTA spot market bullish sentiment rose, spot prices remained above the 10000 pass, showing a strong performance, in mid January, Sinopec, BP Zhuhai, Far East petrochemical January PTA contract price increased to 10500 yuan / ton, Yisheng Petrochemical raised to 10600 yuan / ton.

PTA manufacturers' spot profit rebounded to 1400 - 1800 yuan / ton.

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Overall, short-term PTA will show a strong strong oscillation, the upper 11000 pressure test; in the medium term, domestic inflation expectations, tight supply and demand, cost increase and post holiday replenishment demand will support the PTA market, PTA price is expected to continue to oscillate upward trend.

Post holiday rally is worth looking forward to.