In 2011, The Exchange Rate Is Still The "Big Stone" In The Shoes Of Export Enterprises.

January 7th, recently, the RMB against the US dollar. exchange rate In the third consecutive trading day, the central parity price hit a new high since the July 2005 exchange rate reform. It also ushered in the "ten plus Yang" to the US dollar exchange rate.

In the first trading day of 2011, the inter-bank foreign exchange market's US dollar to central parity was 1 yuan against RMB 6.6215 yuan, which was slightly lower by 12 basis points compared with 6.6227 in December 31, 2010. So far, the RMB exchange rate has risen for 10 days.

On the day before, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs talked about Sino US relations on Twitter and said he would continue to press China to let the renminbi appreciate. Meanwhile, Brazil's new president, Rousseff, said it will take measures to solve the problem of high currency and will take a more forceful stance in its trade negotiations with China.

foreign Economy and trade He Weiwen, deputy director of the Institute of open economics of China University, said many politicians and scholars in the United States have been putting pressure on the RMB exchange rate to save the US trade imbalance. This year's pressure is likely to increase. The profit margins of Chinese exporters will be further compressed, and the situation is not optimistic.

　 　 Exit Enterprises: dare not accept orders

"Almost no orders have been received in recent months." Wang Wansheng, general manager of Tai'an textile company in Anhui Province, told reporters that in the seven or eight months, the list could not produce much, but now there were many, but the appreciation of RMB was too fierce to answer.

"In 2010, a textile and garment export enterprise that has won a turnover will be faced with a dilemma of" low growth and high cost "next year. The first textile network senior analyst Wang progressive prophecy, under the influence of many unfavorable factors such as high cost, increased exchange rate fluctuations and the expansion of the impact of the European debt crisis, the export environment of the industry in 2011 is becoming more and more serious.

Shoemaking is another injury industry. Because the cost of labor and raw materials is rising and the exchange rate is rising, corporate profits are not impressive.

In response to the appreciation of the renminbi, shoemaking industry experts suggest that footwear export enterprises should reduce long-term acceptance orders and set the order period to 2 months in the process of accepting orders. Once the order period exceeds 2 months, the order price will be raised according to the specific circumstances to offset the exchange rate risk. Orders over 6 months will be rejected.

　　 Appreciation pressure: not only from the United States

At present, the RMB exchange rate has entered a strategic channel of appreciation. In the long run, the global pattern of "rising east to west, south hot and north cold" is doomed that China will face the risk of asset inflation and excessive appreciation of RMB over a long period of time.

Zhang Monan, an Associate Research Fellow of the World Economic Research Office of the Ministry of economic information of the state information center, told reporters that the US attitude towards the RMB exchange rate eased slightly due to the recent economic situation in the United States and the end of the mid-term elections. But in the long run, the United States will still force the renminbi to continue its rapid appreciation.

During the financial crisis, the BRICs became an important force in the global response to the crisis. In the post crisis era, Brazil took the lead in the issue of RMB value to China. Brazil's new president, Rousseff, will visit China in April, when she will raise concerns about the undervaluation of the RMB exchange rate and protectionism. It is reported that Rousseff plans to take radical measures to help domestic industries, such as raising tariffs and tax benefits, including goods from China.

Zhang Monan believes that a comprehensive appreciation of the renminbi will have a fundamental impact on China's manufacturing industry in the future. The profit margin of China's traditional labor-intensive export enterprises is about 3% to 5%. According to the stress test conducted by the manufacturing industry in the coastal areas in the first half of 2010, if the RMB appreciated by 3%, the manufacturing enterprises in the coastal areas will face an unprecedented predicament.