Speculation On The Issuance Of Cotton Import Quotas In 2011

　　 Recently, the Ministry of Finance announced the tariff in 2011. Quota tax rate The specific ways are as follows:

　　 1. when the duty paid price of imported cotton is higher than or equal to 11.397 yuan / kg, the amount of tax is calculated according to 0.570 yuan / kg.

2. when the duty paid price of imported cotton is below 11.397 yuan / kg, the provisional tariff rate shall be calculated according to the following formula:

Ri=8.686/Pi +2.526% * Pi -1

For the upper result, four decimal five entries are reserved for 3 decimal places. Ri is a provisional tariff rate. When the calculated value is above 40%, the value of Ri is 40%.

Pi is the customs duty paid price. The unit is RMB / kg.

In short, 2010 Similarly, when the duty paid price is less than 11397 yuan / ton, the tax rate is 5-40%, and the fixed duty rate is 570 yuan / ton at 11397 or above. According to customs regulations, the import exchange rate in January 2011 was 1:6.6566, so 11397 yuan / ton was equivalent to 77.66 cents / pound. According to the current international market price, the actual tax rate of cotton imports is basically 570 yuan / ton, less than 3% of the value of imports. The pressure of tariffs on enterprises is reduced.

The tax rate is determined by the Ministry of finance, but the number and time of the quota are finalized by the NDRC. Up to now, there is no official information about the quota. From the experience of recent years, the annual quota is no longer a problem, the total quota is generally larger than the actual gap, but the government usually regulates the market through the rhythm issued by quotas.

A total of 3 million 562 thousand tonnes of quotas were issued in 2010, and 2 million 378 thousand tons were actually imported from 1 to November, such as the import of 250 thousand tons in December, and the quota exceeded the actual import volume. Among them, 1% quotas are 894 thousand tons, and the remaining quasi tax quotas are distributed in three times: 1 million tons in January (mostly processed trade quotas), 800 thousand tons in May and 868 thousand tons in June.

The quota issuance in 2010 was once controversial: first, the quota for January was mainly processed trade, and the general trade quota was very few or even not, so the import of cotton enterprises and middlemen was extremely limited. Two, the second and third general trade quotas were not issued until May and June, which made enterprises miss the best opportunity to order. Moreover, it is not fully utilized. International resources In May 22, 2009, since the end of the 10 month of 2010, the State Treasury has sold only about 20-30 tons, and the means of regulation have been greatly reduced.

For the 2011 quotas, I believe that the relevant departments will sum up the experience and lessons of 2010. First, the total quota will not be lower than last year, but it will still not be issued at once. Secondly, the first batch of sliding tax will be issued with the 894 thousand tons 1% quota, with an estimated volume of 100-150 million tons, and the general trade proportion will increase. It is expected that enterprises will be able to learn their quota by the end of December. After the Spring Festival, the second or third batches will be added according to the market situation. Third, if the market price does not fall sharply after the Spring Festival, the quota will not be delayed until June.

Although imported cotton will replenish domestic resources, quotas will not have a significant negative impact on current market prices. First of all, the total quota is no longer a determinant of import restrictions. Enterprises are more concerned about the spread at home and abroad. Secondly, one of the characteristics of this year's market is to use cotton enterprises to sign advanced contracts ahead of time. That is to say, in general, the fixed orders have already been placed ahead of schedule. Quota issuance will not become a fuse for a large number of contracts in the short term. Third, the global resources are limited, and the number of imports available for China will not increase significantly because of the quota issued by the government.

　　 In contrast, whether the country's fiscal and monetary policies continue to tighten and whether inflationary pressures are resolved are more influential than the quota issuance on the market.