Development And Reform Commission: Farm Products Speculation Funds Come From The Stock Market.

For a series of agricultural products (000061) prices skyrocketing, such as "beans you play" and "garlic you ruthless", the national development and Reform Commission said that after a large number of funds withdrew from the stock market, the speculation of agricultural products was an important reason.

What are the prices of agricultural products? Why? Why? Why are people Hoarding? Will it increase inflationary pressure? How can we stabilize the prices of agricultural products?

In response to these problems, Xinhua News Agency reporters conducted an exclusive interview with Peng Sen, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission.

In the interview, Mr. Peng said that since the end of last year, prices have risen sharply, such as rice, corn and other major agricultural products, vegetables, garlic, mung beans and other agricultural and sideline products, as well as some Chinese herbal medicines. There have been three wave of price increases.

The first stage was the drought and low temperature at the beginning of the year, which led to the rise of rice (especially japonica rice) and vegetables.

Since then, 37 and Chinese medicine have become the theme of price increase in March and April.

Then, garlic and mung beans were hyped up in late April and early May.

Among them, the retail price of dried garlic reached 8 yuan per catty, the price of mung bean rose obviously, and some supermarkets had more than 10 yuan per catty.

But after the new garlic came into the market in May, the price of garlic has begun to fall. Now the price of new garlic has dropped to more than 2 yuan per catty.

In addition to long-term factors and short term climate factors, Mori Naon also has some factors such as garlic, mung bean and other agricultural products, such as garlic, mung bean and other agricultural products, such as concentration, seasonality, decline in production and asymmetric market information.

Peng Sen pointed out that last year, China's bank loans put in more than 9 billion yuan, the housing prices climbed steadily in that year, the stock market performance was also good, a large amount of funds were absorbed by the capital market such as real estate and stock market. Since this year, the state has promulgated a series of policies to curb the excessive rise of housing prices and the stock market is also down. In this case, a large number of funds have withdrawn from the stock market and the real estate market, and agricultural products have become the target of speculation for some hot money.

However, Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of statistics, recently believed that the price increase of agricultural and sideline products was mainly affected by the weather. There was no evidence that hot money entered a large market of agricultural and sideline products.

Pang Sen analysis said that although prices are clearly rising varieties, they are all necessities, but in addition to japonica rice and vegetables, they are small agricultural and sideline products. Seasonal production, year-round consumption, supply and demand are all certain. They are not particularly large, easy to store, and easy to speculation.

However, in view of the small proportion of the above varieties in CPI composition, the impact on CPI is limited.

Although domestic CPI growth has reached 2.8% in April this year, the increase is mainly due to the rise in food prices and living prices, while other products are not increasing significantly.

Last year's base price was the main factor in the rising price of food. The price rise of small farmers and by-products, such as mung bean and garlic, did not have much impact on the rise in food prices.

Wang Qing, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Greater China, said that by observing the recent price data of the Ministry of Commerce, it is estimated that the CPI increase will rise from 2.8% in April to 2.9% in May. The ring ratio has shown a mild change, and the food price increase will also slow down.

According to the reporter's understanding from the relevant departments, in the overall CPI, the base factor of the low price formation last year will gradually decrease in the months ending to the end of the year, and there is a callback factor in the CPI.

However, the government is more worried that the hype about the necessities of life is not only a strong social reaction, but also the price movements of some agricultural products will have a "demonstration" role, which will enhance the inflation expectations of the society.

"In particular, a small number of people are hoarding constantly, and constantly releasing information about soaring prices, which will add fuel to the flames of inflation expectations."

Peng Sen said in an interview with Xinhua news agency.