Commentary: The Real Estate Sector Surged &Nbsp In The Afternoon, And The Stock Index Rose 35 Points.

Summary of the market

Financial sector website May 18th hearing: today, the two cities continue yesterday's downtrend, inertia low open.

After the opening, the two cities' stock index went up quickly and double red.

However, the good news didn't last long, and the index dropped slightly after a slight rush.

After 10:30 minutes, the air force again exerted force, and the two cities shook down. The once strong financial, real estate, and coal sectors had turned green, and the non-ferrous metals sector had slumped.

In the afternoon, the stock index rebounded and the two cities turned red, which was mainly driven by the real estate stocks.

Yesterday's sharp decline in the real estate sector today launched a big rebound across the board, nearly half of the real estate stocks rapid rise of 5%, and more than 10 stocks closed down, become an important force to promote the index rebound, PetroChina and other weight index stocks also follow suit.

The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index gained a strong rebound in the heavyweight stock market, and the Shanghai stock index recovered 2600 points in the market.

Judging from the market, the A share market today has formed a new exciting point, that is, real estate stocks, XinDa real estate (600657) and other real estate stocks have been hitting the daily limit. The reason for this is probably related to a news media report. It is reported that the landlord government can not levy taxes separately, which means that the adjustment and control of real estate stocks is expected to be reduced, which makes the real estate stocks feel relieved and rebounded substantially today.

This has also stimulated other rebates, especially some oversold shares.

Plate increase list, the real estate, Tibet, Xinjiang and other regions are more active, gold stocks, ST shares, medicine or lags behind.

As of early morning closing, the Shanghai stock index reported 2594.78 points, up 34.85 points, or 1.36%, Shenzhen index reached 10003.81 points, up 272.09 points, or 2.80%.

Market analysts believe that the regulation of the real estate sector is not a sign of ending. The current trend is still regarded as a selling rebound after serious overfall. After each long Yin stock index, there are two to three trading days to pick up slightly, so the expectation of this rally should not be too high. After the rebound is close to the ten day line, the intensity will be weakened.

Two, important news analysis

(1) "stubborn" or "heavy hand" regulation of property prices.

The new "Ten States" has been released for a month, and the property market has been in a wait-and-see manner. The volume of pactions has dropped sharply. The volume of property pactions in some cities has dropped by as much as 60%.

Consumers' expectations of falling house prices are rising, and the atmosphere of wait-and-see is getting stronger.

Although the sales inflection point of the property market has already appeared, the average price of the paction is still strong, and even a lot of properties are not going up and down, and the price rises against the market. The malformation of the "property price" is forcing the government to continue to exercise "heavy hand" regulation.

Affected by the new "Ten States" and the Beijing property market regulation policy, since April, the property market paction in Beijing has cooled down, but the housing price has continued to rise.

Under the influence of the new deal in the property market, Shenzhen Yishoufang pactions fell sharply.

Before the introduction of the new deal in the property market, the Shenzhen property market traded 1061 units a week. After the first week of the new deal (April 19th -4 25), the volume fell to 417 sets, or over 60%.

According to statistics released by Shenzhen land and real estate department in May 1st, the average selling price of newly built commercial housing in Shenzhen was 20567 yuan per square meter in April, up 66.79% over the same period last year.

With the reduction of turnover, Guangzhou property prices have not been substantially callback.

Some real estate quotes are even higher than the previous ones.

Shanghai commercial residential area of 71 thousand square meters, compared with the previous week fell 35%.

Originally planned in May, the opening of the city's 67 properties are currently only 17 shows that the opening of the deadline, the vast majority of postponed the opening of an indefinite period, apart from individual property discount ten percent off, the rest of the range is smaller, the average price of listed real estate is still up nearly 14%.

Like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other tier cities, the property market of some second tier cities also shows a downward trend in volume.

[Financial commenting]: the price of housing is being regulated by the "New Deal", which is also making the expectation of more stringent regulation. This may be an important reason for the panic selling in the late market.

(two) the NDRC wants PK Goldman Sachs?

For Goldman Sachs recently released China has become a "debt" big country's report, the national development and Reform Commission Financial and financial secretary Xu Lin recently in the first China financial security senior talent development forum said that although the local government debt risk is worthy of high attention, but "do not think that there is a real risk of explosion."

Xu Lin believes that China's debt to GDP ratio of GDP is between 40%~50% and OECD.

Moreover, the Chinese government has a unique advantage over any other country's government, that is, the assets of the Chinese government are very large, the land is on the one hand, and there are many realizable state-owned assets, which can not be realised in western countries.

After Europe detonated the sovereign debt crisis, Goldman Sachs issued an untimely announcement of China's desire to become a "debt" power.

Xu Lin stressed that this does not mean that there is no need to strengthen the management of local government debt risks.

Previously, because the budget law and other related laws strictly prohibit local fiscal deficits and local government borrowing, China has not established a comprehensive debt management system for local governments.

"But from now on, we will set up a local government debt risk management system, and I think there will be no problem."

Xu Lin, after demonstrating this confidence, added, "but do not squeeze this bubble."

[Financial commenting]: Goldman Sachs or in order to get rid of the declining trend in Europe and the United States, it is the only way to disrupt the global economy in order to disrupt the global economy, so that countries around the world are once again tired of stimulating the economy in order to avoid recession.

In the eyes of the researchers, the NDRC or just saw Goldman's "trick" and did not let it win again, only at the first time for local domestic debt "silencing".

(three) the US giants want to "empty" China?

Empty China seems to be a new fashion in Wall Street.

Chanos, Mai Jiahua, Grantham and other famous hedge fund managers of Wall Street are now singing elegy for China's economy.

The founder and head of Nicks, the world's largest hedge fund company, manages $7 billion of assets, and 52 year old Charles North has thrown short selling targets to larger companies, China.

Chanos began to study the Chinese economy in the summer of 2009. At present, he has 26 employees in the offices of New York and London, concentrates on the Chinese economy, and he has started the layout of "short China".

As the Chinese government forbids foreign investors to invest directly in the A share market, Chanos has revealed that he is looking for other ways, including banks, real estate, building materials producers and other commodities listed in Hongkong, China, including commodities including iron ore.

In March this year, the GMO investment company of Boston issued a research report on China's red alert. It pointed out that China's economy, especially the real estate market, has shown a bubble state, and this bubble will burst sooner or later.

GMO often publishes such warning reports because its big boss, Jeremy Grantham, is a venture capitalist who relies on "anticipation bubbles".

Because several times foresee the stock market crisis, Mai Jiahua was called the "doomsday doctor" by the investment circles.

At this point, "China's economy will collapse within 9-12 months" - this is the most quoted quote by Mai Jiahua, a well-known investment analyst.

[Financial commenting]: Although the hedge fund giants' strict theory is exaggerated, let these investors make such a conclusion and take certain actions, no doubt that China's economy is not absolutely healthy growth. At least in the structural adjustment, the path of real estate bubble and economic growth depends on or has become a soft spot in the economy.

(four) CIC has finally launched...

According to sources, the China Investment Co has initially agreed to subscribe to the Agricultural Bank of China. However, due to the fact that the price of stock and valuation has not yet been implemented, the amount is still unknown. This may mean that in the case of ABC IPO and real estate regulation, which has made A shares "rampage" everywhere, CIC will have to rescue the market.

Reported that the Agricultural Bank A%2BH listed on the listing date is only 1 days, H-share by CICC, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Macquarie and Nong Yin International Underwriters; A shares are CICC, CITIC, Guotai Junan and Galaxy Securities.

However, because the initial intention price of Agricultural Bank and underwriting group is about two times the market rate, investors' reaction tendency is prudent under the unstable market conditions.

However, the company still plans to register in the middle of 7, but the specific time is "faster and better", so once the preparatory work is completed, it will be the first hearing in the middle of 6.

[Financial commenting]: CIC said it would "release" or to reveal an attitude. The government will not sit idly by and let the air force "bombardment" make profits. This is undoubtedly the most important market for the current "stable military" market.

(five) China, Japan and South Korea free trade zone is getting closer and closer.

Recently, the Vice Minister of economic, trade and Commerce in China, Japan and Korea held a meeting in Seoul, capital of South Korea, and announced the launch of the joint feasibility study of the FTA.

Yao Jian said that the work will last for about two years, and is expected to be completed in 2012 to provide basic research and basic judgement for the next stage of construction of the free trade area.

This seems to indicate that after a long time of preparation, China, Japan and South Korea's FTA have come to a gradual conclusion.

Yao Jian said that the feasibility study is a major event in the economic and trade relations between China, Japan and South Korea, and an important event in the process of East Asian integration, which will promote regional economic development and create greater benefits for the enterprises and people of the three countries.

China hopes that the joint study of the three governments' industry and learning FTA can be completed as soon as possible in a flexible and pragmatic principle, thereby promoting economic and trade cooperation and exchanges between the three countries.

[Financial commenting]: the European sovereign debt crisis has devalued the euro, or has seriously affected domestic export trade to Europe, and the United States has been constantly putting pressure on the RMB exchange rate because it wants to implement the strategy of "export power".

Therefore, in the view of researchers, accelerating the construction of China, Japan and South Korea free trade area or becoming the "breaking the way" of domestic export processing industry will help to win a win-win situation between countries.