Market Analysis: The Cotton Market Pays Attention To The Demand Performance After The Festival And The Change Of Cotton Planting Intention In The New Year

The supply and demand data of American cotton in 2024/25 has little change. The domestic consumption has slightly decreased by 100000 bales, and the ending inventory has increased by 100000 bales. The inventory consumption ratio is 39%, which is 1% higher than that of last month Percentage points. Globally,

　　2024/25 The annual global cotton output and ending inventory increased month on month, but the beginning inventory decreased. The global cotton consumption and export volume increased slightly, China's cotton output increased by 1 million bales, and Brazil's output increased slightly, but it was basically offset by the reduction of output in Argentina and Kazakhstan. The import volume of Bangladesh, Pakistan and Vietnam increased, but was offset by the decrease of China's import volume.

Global ending inventory increased by 500000 packages month on month, and the increase in output was partially offset by the decrease in beginning inventory.

The low rebound of the outer disk boosted the operation of Zheng Mian. In terms of spot goods, the latest cotton price index at 328 level was 14866 yuan/ton, 41 yuan/ton higher than the previous trading day. On hand, 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang Machinery Mining 4129/29B/Miscellaneous 3.5 has more sales basis of CF05+750 and above, and lower basis of CF05+650~750, which is self raised in Xinjiang. The low price of Grade 31 machinery mining in Kashi, South Xinjiang 600~700, most of the same quality in South Xinjiang is CF05+650 and above, which are self raised in Xinjiang.

The overall trading in the pure cotton yarn market is gradually recovering, but it is still relatively light. Downstream procurement is cautious. Textile enterprises' quotations are rising steadily, and the inventory level is not high. The pure cotton grey cloth market is still in the recovery stage after the festival. Most textile mills have started construction, and the light textile city stores around the city have also opened in succession. At present, there are still few inquiries. At present, the logistics is still in the recovery stage, and it is expected that the grey cloth market and logistics will return to normal after the 15th day of the first month.

USDA Cotton 2 The monthly supply and demand report shows that the global cotton output is dominated by the increase of China's output on a month on month basis, and the consumption end is dominated by the decrease of India's consumption on a month on month basis. The overall trade volume has not changed much, and the ending inventory of major cotton producing countries is mainly increased. On the whole, the growth of global cotton production was greater than that of consumption, and the inventory at the end of the period accumulated slightly, and the inventory sales ratio rose month on month 0.4%, reporting overall neutral bias.

However, the external market is in the short covering stage, and the recent trend is strong, driving Zheng Mian up. The fundamentals of the domestic market remain stable. The sufficient supply of output still puts pressure on Zheng Mian's upward movement. The pre festival rush for export orders is expected to continue. At present, the production of downstream textile enterprises is still in the process of gradual recovery. At present, the inventory of finished cotton yarn is well depleted, and the industrial pressure is not great. Pay attention to the demand performance after the festival and the change of cotton planting intention in the new year. In the short term, the judgment of shock shall be maintained, and interval operation shall be given priority.