Oil Prices Plummet Due To Overseas Outbreak And Refined Oil Prices Fell For The Third Time In The Year

After entering August, the international oil price, which has been rising fiercely, has fallen continuously due to the counterattack of the global new crown epidemic. With the reversal of market sentiment, the outlook for crude oil demand is no longer optimistic.

Affected by this, domestic refined oil retail price limit also ushered in the "third" decline in the year. At present, under the influence of multiple factors, the domestic oil product market demand is weak, the market resource supply is still increasing, and the competition of market supply exceeding demand is further intensified. However, with the relief of epidemic situation in many places and the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season of "golden nine silver ten", the situation of refined oil market will also be improved.

Refined oil to meet the third price reduction in the year

According to the national development and Reform Commission, since 24:00 on August 23, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been lowered according to the mechanism, including a reduction of 250 yuan / ton for gasoline and 245 yuan / ton for diesel. In terms of price increase, the retail price limit of No. 92 gasoline was reduced by 0.2 yuan / L, and the retail price limit of 95 gasoline and 0 diesel was reduced by 0.21 yuan / L.

According to the monitoring data of Longzhong information, a commodity information organization, after this round of price adjustment, the price of vehicle diesel oil in most parts of the country will remain around 6.5-6.7 yuan / L, and the retail price limit of No.92 gasoline is between 6.6 yuan and 6.8 yuan / L. After the price adjustment, the cost of car owners will also be reduced.

In the case of an ordinary private car with a 50 liter fuel tank, the owner will spend about 10 yuan less to fill up a tank of oil; For large logistics vehicles with full load of 50 tons, the fuel cost will be reduced by about 8.4 yuan per 100 km.

This round of price adjustment is the 16th adjustment of refined oil retail price limit since 2021. After this round of price adjustment, the price adjustment of refined oil products will show a trend of "ten rises, three falls and three stalls".

Since 2021, with the continuous recovery of the global economy driving the recovery of crude oil demand, OPEC + organization has also been cautious to slightly release the production restriction, and the international oil price has entered the channel of steady rise. Affected by the international oil price environment, the price of finished products rose more or less in the year. After offsetting all the ups and downs, the retail price limits for gasoline and diesel were increased by 1125 yuan / ton and 1080 yuan / ton respectively.

The next round of price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on September 6. According to the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil price adjustment will show a downward trend, with the range of about 230 yuan / ton.

At present, the summer travel peak in the United States is coming to an end. Meanwhile, the global new epidemic situation is still grim, and the prospect of economic growth and crude oil demand recovery continues to worry. Li Yan predicted that the next round of refined oil retail price limit rate will also be reduced.

Wang Yanting, a refined oil analyst at jinlianchuang, pointed out that crude oil will continue to seek support after experiencing a sustained and substantial decline. It is expected that the oil price will have a bottoming process and will gradually stabilize and fluctuate in the short term; However, in the new round of price adjustment cycle, the change rate of reference crude oil will still start with a negative value, with a large range, which will significantly depress the later market.

Overseas epidemic counter attack ends oil price recovery

Since the beginning of this year, the international oil price has increased significantly, and in the first half of this year, it has continued a zigzag upward trend. However, since the beginning of August, the repeated outbreak of the new global crown has led to the market's forecast of crude oil demand no longer optimistic, the supply and demand situation of crude oil market has changed significantly, and the oil price has zigzagged down.

Since August 12, WTI and Brent oil prices have even fallen for seven consecutive times, which fully reflects the negative pressure on oil prices caused by insufficient investor confidence“ During the period of "seven consecutive falls", the price of WTI crude oil futures fell from US $69.25/barrel to US $62.32/barrel, down 10%; Brent crude oil futures price fell from 71.44 US dollars / barrel to 65.18 US dollars / barrel, down 8.76%.

From the news point of view, since this round of pricing cycle, the vaccination rate of new crown vaccine in Asian countries is still lagging behind, which has a drag on the sustainability of regional fuel consumption; On Wednesday, the United States made a statement urging the organization of oil producing countries to continue to increase production, which also brought a certain pressure on international oil prices.

In addition, due to the spread of NDV in the world, crude oil demand reversed in July, and the recovery of fuel demand in the whole year became heavy again; The surge of new cases in the United States has frustrated the economic recovery of the United States again. At present, institutions including the International Energy Agency, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase have re estimated the crude oil demand outlook in the second half of the year, and are cautious about the next oil price trend.

As an important force that has been committed to stabilizing the global crude oil market, the OPEC + oil producing countries alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia had a lot of disputes in July this year over whether to release the production reduction restrictions. At that time, the recovery prospects of the global economy and crude oil demand were good, and many market institutions analyzed that OPEC + cautious increase in production policy would lead to a shortage of crude oil supply in the second half of the year.

But OPEC + finally reached a small increase in production agreement. From the present point of view, this choice is prudent and wise. Market sources said that the organization would reassess the decision on production limits at the OPEC + meeting to be held in early September.

It is worth noting that since February this year, the international oil price has been basically stable above $60 / barrel. It can be expected that if the overall market situation does not change significantly, there is no incentive for oil prices to further bottom. As of the afternoon of August 23, Beijing time, the price of WTI and Brent crude oil futures both rebounded, which is expected to end the "seven consecutive falls" trend.

Market demand of domestic oil products is weak

In the domestic market, the decline of crude oil continues to increase, and the overall market has no obvious factors to boost. Under the influence of various factors, the market demand is relatively light.

Wang Yanting said that the repeated domestic epidemic situation has a certain pressure on the small peak season of summer travel, and the overall gasoline demand is weak; And the large-scale rainfall weather in many parts of the country also leads to the limited improvement of diesel market demand.

Longzhong information market analysis points out that the retail price limit of gasoline and diesel has been lowered this time, but the wholesale price has declined rapidly in the early stage, so the profit margin of gas stations is still acceptable.

On the whole, domestic resource supply shows an increasing trend. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in July 2021, the domestic gasoline output was 13.742 million tons, with a 4.2% increase month on month; Diesel production was 13.215 million tons, a decrease of 0.3%.

As the epidemic situation has gradually entered a controllable state, the level of some medium and high-risk areas in China has been reduced, and people's travel has increased, and the demand for gasoline has also increased. The diesel demand in the northern market is supported by rigid demand, but the demand in the south is weak due to the influence of rainfall; With the end of the fishing season in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, the subsequent demand for diesel oil has an increasing trend.

Since August, the maintenance of local refineries in China has decreased, and the operating load has gradually risen; The processing capacity of some main refineries decreased in the early stage also increased. Therefore, the supply of domestic refined oil resources will further increase in the later period, and the gasoline market will not be significantly stimulated, and the demand will remain flat.

At the same time, the export volume of refined oil from main refineries was still limited in August, the competitive pressure on domestic sales of domestic resources increased, the pressure of oversupply in the gasoline market became more prominent, and there was still room for downward price.

Wang Yanting pointed out that with the approaching of the "golden nine silver ten" traditional demand peak season, some diesel users began to stock up in advance, which will boost the market demand to a certain extent, and the price may tend to be firm.