High Crude Oil Price Helps PTA Price Increase By More Than 35% In Recent 3 Months

According to the price monitoring, the domestic PTA market has maintained a fluctuating upward trend in the past three months. As of February 23, the average price of the spot market was 4463 yuan / ton, up 35.1%, down 0.47% year-on-year.

Recently, affected by the cold wave, the US crude oil production decreased, and many institutions raised the oil price expectations, boosting market confidence, crude oil rebounded strongly. Crude oil reached a new high in nearly 13 months and strengthened support for PTA cost. At the same time, PX followed up. On February 22, the Asian PX market closed at US $804.33/t CFR China and US $786.33/t FOB Korea, up US $24 / T from the previous working day. In terms of equipment, Ningbo Zhongjin 1.6 million tons / year PX plant was restarted on February 18, Vietnam 700000 tons and Thailand 540000 tons units were overhauled, and the cost side support was enhanced.

At present, the PTA spot processing difference is reduced to less than 200 yuan / ton. Under the low processing cost, some PTA units are planned to be overhauled, and the bad luck at the supply side is weakened. Among them, Eason Hainan 2 million tons PTA plant will be overhauled on February 11, 2021, and it is estimated that it will be shut down for about one month. A 400000 ton PTA plant in Shanghai was shut down unexpectedly, and the restart time is to be determined. The overall load of PTA plant in China dropped to 87%. In terms of new units, Honggang Petrochemical's 2.5 million ton PTA plant is planned to be put into operation by the end of February.

In terms of demand, the current domestic polyester comprehensive operating load has increased to about 84%, and the supply and demand side has improved compared with that before the festival. The polyester fiber performance in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas is good. The average production and sales of polyester factories are 130% - 150%, and the production and sales of some hot factories can reach 300%. In terms of inventory, the overall polyester inventory is concentrated in 19-26 days, POY inventory is 7-9 days, fdy12-22 days, and DTY inventory is about 13-26 days. In terms of price, mainstream factories generally rose 300-400 yuan / ton per day, of which polyester poy150d / 48F price was 7400-7650 yuan / ton.

Analysts believe that, from the perspective of PTA supply, the current PTA processing difference is compressed to a low level, and the domestic PTA plant maintenance capacity from March to April is close to 9 million tons. We should pay attention to the implementation of later maintenance and the commissioning of new units. The weaving on the demand side is mostly resumed around the 10th day of the first month, and the demand recovery is expected to be optimistic. And the short-term oil price remains high and volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to the situation of the OPEC + meeting on March 4 in the later stage. Overall, it is expected that the short-term PTA price oscillation will be strong.